{"meta":{"v":2,"slug":"asian-cup","name":"AFC Asian Cup","sport":"Football","kind":"match","season":"2023 (played 2024)","season_key":"2024","generated_at":"2026-11-12T00:17:29+00:00","crown":"Asian Cup","round_name":"Matchday","home_word":"Home advantage","draws":true,"versus":false,"participant":"team","group_label":"Group","official_table":false,"table_note":"The group tables, from results: the top two in each group and the four best third-placed sides reach the round of 16.","table_columns":[],"points":"soccer","periods":2,"period_minutes":45,"clock_up":true,"live":true,"outdoor":true},"teams":{"AUS":{"name":"Australia","short":"Australia","abbr":"AUS","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/AUS.webp","color":"#FFCD00"},"BHR":{"name":"Bahrain","short":"Bahrain","abbr":"BHR","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/BHR.webp","color":"#d50032"},"CHN":{"name":"China","short":"China","abbr":"CHN","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/CHN.webp","color":"#dd342c"},"HKG":{"name":"Hong Kong","short":"Hong Kong","abbr":"HKG","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/HKG.webp","color":"#E70000"},"IDN":{"name":"Indonesia","short":"Indonesia","abbr":"IDN","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/IDN.webp","color":"#E70000"},"IND":{"name":"India","short":"India","abbr":"IND","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/IND.webp","color":"#1e8943"},"IRN":{"name":"Iran","short":"Iran","abbr":"IRN","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/IRN.webp","color":"#FFFFFF"},"IRQ":{"name":"Iraq","short":"Iraq","abbr":"IRQ","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/IRQ.webp","color":"#FFFFFF"},"JOR":{"name":"Jordan","short":"Jordan","abbr":"JOR","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/JOR.webp","color":"#E70000"},"JPN":{"name":"Japan","short":"Japan","abbr":"JPN","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/JPN.webp","color":"#000555"},"KGZ":{"name":"Kyrgyz Republic","short":"Kyrgyz Rep.","abbr":"KGZ","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/KGZ.webp","color":"#E70000"},"KOR":{"name":"South Korea","short":"South Korea","abbr":"KOR","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/KOR.webp","color":"#ce2028"},"KSA":{"name":"Saudi Arabia","short":"Saudi Arabia","abbr":"KSA","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/KSA.webp","color":"#FFFFFF"},"LIB":{"name":"Lebanon","short":"Lebanon","abbr":"LIB","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/LIB.webp","color":"#E70000"},"MAS":{"name":"Malaysia","short":"Malaysia","abbr":"MAS","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/MAS.webp","color":"#ffd933"},"OMA":{"name":"Oman","short":"Oman","abbr":"OMA","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/OMA.webp","color":"#E70000"},"PLE":{"name":"Palestine","short":"Palestine","abbr":"PLE","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/PLE.webp","color":"#CE1126"},"QAT":{"name":"Qatar","short":"Qatar","abbr":"QAT","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/QAT.webp","color":"#691a40"},"SYR":{"name":"Syria","short":"Syria","abbr":"SYR","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/SYR.webp","color":"#E70000"},"THA":{"name":"Thailand","short":"Thailand","abbr":"THA","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/THA.webp","color":"#273476"},"TJK":{"name":"Tajikistan","short":"Tajikistan","abbr":"TJK","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/TJK.webp","color":"#E70000"},"UAE":{"name":"United Arab Emirates","short":"UAE","abbr":"UAE","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/UAE.webp","color":"#E70000"},"UZB":{"name":"Uzbekistan","short":"Uzbekistan","abbr":"UZB","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/UZB.webp","color":"#ffffff"},"VIE":{"name":"Vietnam","short":"Vietnam","abbr":"VIE","logo":"/assets/teams/asian-cup/VIE.webp","color":"#E70000"}},"slate":[],"live":[],"recent":[{"id":"intl-2024-02-10-qatar-jordan","date":"2024-02-10","home":"QAT","away":"JOR","note":"AFC Asian Cup","hs":3,"as":1,"done":true,"p":[0.4062,0.3138,0.28],"elo":[1571,1607],"wx":{"temp":19.1,"rain":0.33,"wind":8.2,"src":"station","b":0.165}},{"id":"intl-2024-02-07-qatar-iran","date":"2024-02-07","home":"QAT","away":"IRN","note":"AFC Asian Cup","hs":3,"as":2,"done":true,"p":[0.1763,0.2695,0.5541],"elo":[1534,1772],"wx":{"temp":19.0,"rain":0.0,"wind":9.4,"src":"station"}},{"id":"intl-2024-02-06-jordan-southkorea","date":"2024-02-06","home":"JOR","away":"KOR","note":"AFC Asian Cup","hs":2,"as":0,"done":true,"p":[0.1668,0.2626,0.5706],"elo":[1547,1711],"wx":{"temp":19.0,"rain":0.0,"wind":16.7,"src":"station"},"neutral":true},{"id":"intl-2024-02-03-iran-japan","date":"2024-02-03","home":"IRN","away":"JPN","note":"AFC Asian Cup","hs":2,"as":1,"done":true,"p":[0.253,0.307,0.4399],"elo":[1741,1814],"wx":{"temp":17.0,"rain":0.0,"wind":15.4,"src":"station"},"neutral":true},{"id":"intl-2024-02-03-qatar-uzbekistan","date":"2024-02-03","home":"QAT","away":"UZB","note":"AFC Asian Cup","hs":1,"as":1,"done":true,"p":[0.3238,0.319,0.3572],"elo":[1533,1631],"wx":{"temp":17.0,"rain":0.0,"wind":23.5,"src":"station"}},{"id":"intl-2024-02-02-australia-southkorea","date":"2024-02-02","home":"AUS","away":"KOR","note":"AFC Asian Cup","hs":1,"as":2,"done":true,"p":[0.412,0.3128,0.2753],"elo":[1736,1682],"wx":{"temp":16.1,"rain":0.0,"wind":17.2,"src":"station"},"neutral":true},{"id":"intl-2024-02-02-tajikistan-jordan","date":"2024-02-02","home":"TJK","away":"JOR","note":"AFC Asian Cup","hs":0,"as":1,"done":true,"p":[0.1847,0.2752,0.5401],"elo":[1389,1532],"wx":{"temp":16.1,"rain":0.0,"wind":17.2,"src":"station"},"neutral":true},{"id":"intl-2024-01-31-bahrain-japan","date":"2024-01-31","home":"BHR","away":"JPN","note":"AFC Asian Cup","hs":1,"as":3,"done":true,"p":[0.0569,0.1279,0.8152],"elo":[1433,1806],"wx":{"temp":22.0,"rain":0.0,"wind":16.0,"src":"station"},"neutral":true},{"id":"intl-2024-01-31-iran-syria","date":"2024-01-31","home":"IRN","away":"SYR","note":"AFC Asian Cup","hs":1,"as":1,"done":true,"p":[0.7959,0.1402,0.0639],"elo":[1769,1418],"wx":{"temp":22.0,"rain":0.0,"wind":16.0,"src":"station"},"neutral":true},{"id":"intl-2024-01-30-saudiarabia-southkorea","date":"2024-01-30","home":"KSA","away":"KOR","note":"AFC Asian Cup","hs":1,"as":1,"done":true,"p":[0.1914,0.2794,0.5293],"elo":[1560,1695],"wx":{"temp":21.7,"rain":0.0,"wind":5.4,"src":"station"},"neutral":true},{"id":"intl-2024-01-30-uzbekistan-thailand","date":"2024-01-30","home":"UZB","away":"THA","note":"AFC Asian Cup","hs":2,"as":1,"done":true,"p":[0.6154,0.242,0.1426],"elo":[1619,1422],"wx":{"temp":21.7,"rain":0.0,"wind":5.4,"src":"station"},"neutral":true},{"id":"intl-2024-01-29-iraq-jordan","date":"2024-01-29","home":"IRQ","away":"JOR","note":"AFC Asian Cup","hs":2,"as":3,"done":true,"p":[0.5188,0.2833,0.198],"elo":[1625,1497],"wx":{"temp":20.7,"rain":0.0,"wind":5.5,"src":"station"},"neutral":true}],"power":[{"team":"JPN","rating":1800.1,"start":1843.9,"season_change":-43.8,"month_change":-14.3,"played":5,"wins":3,"losses":2,"draws":0,"gf":12,"ga":8,"form":"WLWWL","rank":1},{"team":"AUS","rating":1731.9,"start":1728.5,"season_change":3.4,"month_change":-3.8,"played":5,"wins":3,"losses":1,"draws":1,"gf":9,"ga":3,"form":"WWDWL","rank":2},{"team":"IRN","rating":1691.0,"start":1748.1,"season_change":-57.1,"month_change":-80.9,"played":6,"wins":4,"losses":1,"draws":1,"gf":12,"ga":7,"form":"WWDWL","rank":3},{"team":"KOR","rating":1660.5,"start":1738.0,"season_change":-77.5,"month_change":-51.0,"played":6,"wins":2,"losses":1,"draws":3,"gf":11,"ga":10,"form":"DDDWL","rank":4},{"team":"KSA","rating":1580.4,"start":1541.9,"season_change":38.5,"month_change":20.3,"played":4,"wins":2,"losses":0,"draws":2,"gf":5,"ga":2,"form":"WWDD","rank":5},{"team":"UZB","rating":1580.1,"start":1612.1,"season_change":-31.9,"month_change":-50.6,"played":5,"wins":2,"losses":0,"draws":3,"gf":7,"ga":3,"form":"DWDWD","rank":6},{"team":"JOR","rating":1551.2,"start":1468.7,"season_change":82.5,"month_change":-55.7,"played":7,"wins":4,"losses":2,"draws":1,"gf":13,"ga":8,"form":"LWWWL","rank":7},{"team":"UAE","rating":1522.6,"start":1494.7,"season_change":27.9,"month_change":40.7,"played":4,"wins":1,"losses":1,"draws":2,"gf":6,"ga":5,"form":"WDLD","rank":8},{"team":"IRQ","rating":1485.6,"start":1558.6,"season_change":-73.1,"month_change":-139.6,"played":4,"wins":3,"losses":1,"draws":0,"gf":10,"ga":7,"form":"WWWL","rank":9},{"team":"PLE","rating":1478.5,"start":1399.7,"season_change":78.8,"month_change":65.9,"played":4,"wins":1,"losses":2,"draws":1,"gf":6,"ga":7,"form":"LDWL","rank":10},{"team":"SYR","rating":1441.8,"start":1389.1,"season_change":52.7,"month_change":23.9,"played":4,"wins":1,"losses":1,"draws":2,"gf":2,"ga":2,"form":"DLWD","rank":11},{"team":"QAT","rating":1426.7,"start":1480.9,"season_change":-54.1,"month_change":-144.2,"played":7,"wins":6,"losses":0,"draws":1,"gf":14,"ga":5,"form":"WWDWW","rank":12},{"team":"OMA","rating":1409.7,"start":1517.2,"season_change":-107.5,"month_change":-75.0,"played":3,"wins":0,"losses":1,"draws":2,"gf":2,"ga":3,"form":"LDD","rank":13},{"team":"THA","rating":1387.4,"start":1367.1,"season_change":20.4,"month_change":-34.6,"played":4,"wins":1,"losses":1,"draws":2,"gf":3,"ga":2,"form":"WDDL","rank":14},{"team":"VIE","rating":1385.7,"start":1379.9,"season_change":5.7,"month_change":45.5,"played":3,"wins":0,"losses":3,"draws":0,"gf":4,"ga":8,"form":"LLL","rank":15},{"team":"MAS","rating":1358.9,"start":1378.9,"season_change":-20.0,"month_change":44.7,"played":3,"wins":0,"losses":2,"draws":1,"gf":3,"ga":8,"form":"LLD","rank":16},{"team":"CHN","rating":1336.7,"start":1411.5,"season_change":-74.9,"month_change":-57.4,"played":3,"wins":0,"losses":1,"draws":2,"gf":0,"ga":1,"form":"DDL","rank":17},{"team":"IDN","rating":1325.1,"start":1259.5,"season_change":65.6,"month_change":46.2,"played":4,"wins":1,"losses":3,"draws":0,"gf":3,"ga":10,"form":"LWLL","rank":18},{"team":"KGZ","rating":1323.5,"start":1280.5,"season_change":43.0,"month_change":83.6,"played":3,"wins":0,"losses":2,"draws":1,"gf":1,"ga":5,"form":"LLD","rank":19},{"team":"LIB","rating":1289.9,"start":1287.3,"season_change":2.6,"month_change":6.1,"played":3,"wins":0,"losses":2,"draws":1,"gf":1,"ga":5,"form":"LDL","rank":20},{"team":"BHR","rating":1289.7,"start":1385.1,"season_change":-95.4,"month_change":-143.7,"played":4,"wins":2,"losses":2,"draws":0,"gf":4,"ga":6,"form":"LWWL","rank":21},{"team":"TJK","rating":1276.3,"start":1366.6,"season_change":-90.3,"month_change":-112.7,"played":5,"wins":1,"losses":2,"draws":2,"gf":3,"ga":4,"form":"DLWDL","rank":22},{"team":"HKG","rating":1191.8,"start":1088.4,"season_change":103.4,"month_change":111.1,"played":3,"wins":0,"losses":3,"draws":0,"gf":1,"ga":7,"form":"LLL","rank":23},{"team":"IND","rating":1104.7,"start":1283.1,"season_change":-178.4,"month_change":-159.0,"played":3,"wins":0,"losses":3,"draws":0,"gf":0,"ga":6,"form":"LLL","rank":24}],"table":[{"team":"QAT","played":7,"wins":6,"draws":1,"losses":0,"otl":0,"gf":14,"ga":5,"gd":9,"points":19.0,"form":"WWDWW","pct":0.9285714285714286,"ratio":280.0},{"team":"JOR","played":7,"wins":4,"draws":1,"losses":2,"otl":0,"gf":13,"ga":8,"gd":5,"points":13.0,"form":"LWWWL","pct":0.6428571428571429,"ratio":162.5},{"team":"IRN","played":6,"wins":4,"draws":1,"losses":1,"otl":0,"gf":12,"ga":7,"gd":5,"points":13.0,"form":"WWDWL","pct":0.75,"ratio":171.43},{"team":"AUS","played":5,"wins":3,"draws":1,"losses":1,"otl":0,"gf":9,"ga":3,"gd":6,"points":10.0,"form":"WWDWL","pct":0.7,"ratio":300.0},{"team":"JPN","played":5,"wins":3,"draws":0,"losses":2,"otl":0,"gf":12,"ga":8,"gd":4,"points":9.0,"form":"WLWWL","pct":0.6,"ratio":150.0},{"team":"UZB","played":5,"wins":2,"draws":3,"losses":0,"otl":0,"gf":7,"ga":3,"gd":4,"points":9.0,"form":"DWDWD","pct":0.7,"ratio":233.33},{"team":"IRQ","played":4,"wins":3,"draws":0,"losses":1,"otl":0,"gf":10,"ga":7,"gd":3,"points":9.0,"form":"WWWL","pct":0.75,"ratio":142.86},{"team":"KOR","played":6,"wins":2,"draws":3,"losses":1,"otl":0,"gf":11,"ga":10,"gd":1,"points":9.0,"form":"DDDWL","pct":0.5833333333333334,"ratio":110.0},{"team":"KSA","played":4,"wins":2,"draws":2,"losses":0,"otl":0,"gf":5,"ga":2,"gd":3,"points":8.0,"form":"WWDD","pct":0.75,"ratio":250.0},{"team":"BHR","played":4,"wins":2,"draws":0,"losses":2,"otl":0,"gf":4,"ga":6,"gd":-2,"points":6.0,"form":"LWWL","pct":0.5,"ratio":66.67},{"team":"UAE","played":4,"wins":1,"draws":2,"losses":1,"otl":0,"gf":6,"ga":5,"gd":1,"points":5.0,"form":"WDLD","pct":0.5,"ratio":120.0},{"team":"THA","played":4,"wins":1,"draws":2,"losses":1,"otl":0,"gf":3,"ga":2,"gd":1,"points":5.0,"form":"WDDL","pct":0.5,"ratio":150.0},{"team":"SYR","played":4,"wins":1,"draws":2,"losses":1,"otl":0,"gf":2,"ga":2,"gd":0,"points":5.0,"form":"DLWD","pct":0.5,"ratio":100.0},{"team":"TJK","played":5,"wins":1,"draws":2,"losses":2,"otl":0,"gf":3,"ga":4,"gd":-1,"points":5.0,"form":"DLWDL","pct":0.4,"ratio":75.0},{"team":"PLE","played":4,"wins":1,"draws":1,"losses":2,"otl":0,"gf":6,"ga":7,"gd":-1,"points":4.0,"form":"LDWL","pct":0.375,"ratio":85.71},{"team":"IDN","played":4,"wins":1,"draws":0,"losses":3,"otl":0,"gf":3,"ga":10,"gd":-7,"points":3.0,"form":"LWLL","pct":0.25,"ratio":30.0},{"team":"OMA","played":3,"wins":0,"draws":2,"losses":1,"otl":0,"gf":2,"ga":3,"gd":-1,"points":2.0,"form":"LDD","pct":0.3333333333333333,"ratio":66.67},{"team":"CHN","played":3,"wins":0,"draws":2,"losses":1,"otl":0,"gf":0,"ga":1,"gd":-1,"points":2.0,"form":"DDL","pct":0.3333333333333333,"ratio":0.0},{"team":"LIB","played":3,"wins":0,"draws":1,"losses":2,"otl":0,"gf":1,"ga":5,"gd":-4,"points":1.0,"form":"LDL","pct":0.16666666666666666,"ratio":20.0},{"team":"KGZ","played":3,"wins":0,"draws":1,"losses":2,"otl":0,"gf":1,"ga":5,"gd":-4,"points":1.0,"form":"LLD","pct":0.16666666666666666,"ratio":20.0},{"team":"MAS","played":3,"wins":0,"draws":1,"losses":2,"otl":0,"gf":3,"ga":8,"gd":-5,"points":1.0,"form":"LLD","pct":0.16666666666666666,"ratio":37.5},{"team":"VIE","played":3,"wins":0,"draws":0,"losses":3,"otl":0,"gf":4,"ga":8,"gd":-4,"points":0.0,"form":"LLL","pct":0.0,"ratio":50.0},{"team":"HKG","played":3,"wins":0,"draws":0,"losses":3,"otl":0,"gf":1,"ga":7,"gd":-6,"points":0.0,"form":"LLL","pct":0.0,"ratio":14.29},{"team":"IND","played":3,"wins":0,"draws":0,"losses":3,"otl":0,"gf":0,"ga":6,"gd":-6,"points":0.0,"form":"LLL","pct":0.0,"ratio":0.0}],"odds":null,"outlook":null,"track":{"markets":{"sources":[],"collecting":[{"key":"bk","name":"Bookmakers (Pinnacle, DraftKings, bet365)","n":0,"stored":false},{"key":"pm","name":"Polymarket","n":0,"stored":false},{"key":"ks","name":"Kalshi","n":0,"stored":false}]},"adjustment":null,"preseason":null,"returning":null,"weather":{"coverage":{"games":21646,"with":21464,"sources":{"station":17313,"reanalysis":4001,"forecast":150}},"weight":0.0,"kept":false,"holdout_with":{"n":102,"log_loss":0.8405722418881332,"brier":0.49195341922083236,"accuracy":0.6274509803921569},"holdout_without":{"n":102,"log_loss":0.8405722418881332,"brier":0.49195341922083236,"accuracy":0.6274509803921569},"rough_n":0,"rough_with":{"n":0},"rough_without":{"n":0},"thresholds":{"wind":30,"rain":2.0,"heat":30}},"params":{"k":90.0,"home":85,"carry":1.0,"draw":115,"mov":true,"new":-150,"playoff_k":1.0,"wx":0.0,"adj":0.0,"pre":0.0,"ret":0.0},"tuned":{"params":{"k":90.0,"home":85,"carry":1.0,"draw":115,"mov":true,"new":-150,"playoff_k":1.0,"wx":0.0,"adj":0.0},"tuned_at":"2026-09-24T01:39:05+00:00","tune_seasons":["2016","2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023"],"holdout_seasons":["2024"],"note":"Shared with the World Cup page: fit on every international in the tuning seasons, not on Asian Cup matches alone."},"holdout":["2019","2023 (played 2024)"],"tune":["2004","2007","2011","2015"],"per_season":[{"season":"2019","key":"2019","holdout":true,"tuning":false,"model":{"n":51,"log_loss":0.7899025096250768,"brier":0.45213123265796284,"accuracy":0.6862745098039216},"base":{"n":51,"log_loss":0.995085493223395,"brier":0.606542617046819,"accuracy":0.45098039215686275},"form":{"n":51,"log_loss":0.9701159542264018,"brier":0.5819928525986163,"accuracy":0.5098039215686274},"market":{"n":0}},{"season":"2023 (played 2024)","key":"2024","holdout":true,"tuning":false,"model":{"n":51,"log_loss":0.8912419741511894,"brier":0.5317756057837014,"accuracy":0.5686274509803921},"base":{"n":51,"log_loss":1.1394609151972488,"brier":0.6794217687074833,"accuracy":0.47058823529411764},"form":{"n":51,"log_loss":1.0690186842352278,"brier":0.6401746148152982,"accuracy":0.5098039215686274},"market":{"n":0}}],"holdout_scores":{"model":{"n":102,"log_loss":0.8405722418881332,"brier":0.49195341922083236,"accuracy":0.6274509803921569},"base":{"n":102,"log_loss":1.067273204210321,"brier":0.6429821928771506,"accuracy":0.46078431372549017},"form":{"n":102,"log_loss":1.0195673192308152,"brier":0.6110837337069576,"accuracy":0.5098039215686274},"market":{"n":0}},"market_pair":null,"calibration":[{"label":"0–10%","n":40,"predicted":0.06496393909658685,"actual":0.05},{"label":"10–20%","n":62,"predicted":0.15849658033219077,"actual":0.12903225806451613},{"label":"20–30%","n":77,"predicted":0.25561651854643874,"actual":0.3246753246753247},{"label":"30–40%","n":31,"predicted":0.323606605337217,"actual":0.1935483870967742},{"label":"40–50%","n":23,"predicted":0.4542075589065692,"actual":0.4782608695652174},{"label":"50–60%","n":26,"predicted":0.5426661409811386,"actual":0.46153846153846156},{"label":"60–70%","n":14,"predicted":0.6382208657651331,"actual":0.6428571428571429},{"label":"70–80%","n":18,"predicted":0.7437582324741786,"actual":0.8333333333333334},{"label":"80–90%","n":11,"predicted":0.8438747109166651,"actual":0.9090909090909091},{"label":"90–100%","n":4,"predicted":0.9247305290800218,"actual":1.0}],"form_fit":{"scale":250,"home":25,"draw":70},"base_rates":[0.4642857142857143,0.14285714285714285,0.39285714285714285],"three_way":true,"titles":{"seasons":[{"season":"1996","champion":"KSA","p_pre":0.053,"p_mid":0.1333,"favourite":"JPN","p_favourite":0.2023,"field":12,"stages":{"Quarter-finals":[0.1035,8],"Semi-finals":[0.1655,4],"Final":[0.4052,2]},"holdout":false,"tuning":false},{"season":"2000","champion":"JPN","p_pre":0.0675,"p_mid":0.1437,"favourite":"KOR","p_favourite":0.2205,"field":12,"stages":{"Quarter-finals":[0.1685,8],"Semi-finals":[0.2592,4],"Final":[0.587,2]},"holdout":false,"tuning":false},{"season":"2004","champion":"JPN","p_pre":0.2737,"p_mid":0.3185,"favourite":"JPN","p_favourite":0.2737,"field":16,"stages":{"Quarter-finals":[0.3113,8],"Semi-finals":[0.3922,4],"Final":[0.5795,2]},"holdout":false,"tuning":true},{"season":"2007","champion":"IRQ","p_pre":0.0338,"p_mid":0.1155,"favourite":"AUS","p_favourite":0.2457,"field":16,"stages":{"Quarter-finals":[0.1092,8],"Semi-finals":[0.2003,4],"Final":[0.4062,2]},"holdout":false,"tuning":true},{"season":"2011","champion":"JPN","p_pre":0.2198,"p_mid":0.2102,"favourite":"JPN","p_favourite":0.2198,"field":16,"stages":{"Quarter-finals":[0.2233,8],"Semi-finals":[0.3405,4],"Final":[0.4875,2]},"holdout":false,"tuning":true},{"season":"2015","champion":"AUS","p_pre":0.1757,"p_mid":0.2555,"favourite":"AUS","p_favourite":0.1757,"field":16,"stages":{"Quarter-finals":[0.1795,8],"Semi-finals":[0.365,4],"Final":[0.547,2]},"holdout":false,"tuning":true},{"season":"2019","champion":"QAT","p_pre":0.0145,"p_mid":0.025,"favourite":"IRN","p_favourite":0.2632,"field":24,"stages":{"Round of 16":[0.0575,16],"Quarter-finals":[0.081,8],"Semi-finals":[0.246,4],"Final":[0.4135,2]},"holdout":true,"tuning":false},{"season":"2023 (played 2024)","champion":"QAT","p_pre":0.0278,"p_mid":0.0437,"favourite":"JPN","p_favourite":0.362,"field":24,"stages":{"Round of 16":[0.059,16],"Quarter-finals":[0.0665,8],"Semi-finals":[0.143,4],"Final":[0.5397,2]},"holdout":true,"tuning":false}],"n":8,"log_loss_pre":2.6733,"log_loss_base":2.802,"fav_won":3,"fav_expected":1.96,"stage_names":["Round of 16","Quarter-finals","Semi-finals","Final"],"stage_scores":{"Quarter-finals":{"n":8,"log_loss":1.9839,"log_loss_base":2.0794},"Semi-finals":{"n":8,"log_loss":1.3907,"log_loss_base":1.3863},"Final":{"n":8,"log_loss":0.713,"log_loss_base":0.6931},"Round of 16":{"n":2,"log_loss":2.8431,"log_loss_base":2.7726}}}},"about":["The nations are rated on every international they play, not just Asian Cup matches — the same ratings, and the same fitted settings, as the World Cup page. Only Asian Cup matches are scored here.","The tournament is simulated 10,000 times: group games from the fixture list, the four best third-placed sides by points, goal difference and goals, the round of 16 drawn up the way the competition's rules place the thirds, and knockouts on neutral ground (Saudi Arabia, the hosts, at home).","A knockout draw goes to a coin flip for extra time and penalties."],"glossary":[],"notes":["The model's settings were fit on all internationals from 2016 to 2023, which include the 2019 tournament, so only the 2023 edition (played in 2024) counts as a true holdout.","Where more than one placement of the third-placed sides fits the rules, the simulation uses the first; the competition's own table might differ in a few combinations."],"sources":[["International football results (Mart Jürisoo)","https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/martj42/international-football-results-from-1872-to-2017","Every men's international since 1872"],["ESPN","https://www.espn.com/soccer/league/_/name/afc.asian.cup","The 2027 fixtures, groups and live scores"],["Meteostat and Open-Meteo","https://meteostat.net/","Weather at the ground"]],"downloads":[{"file":"/data/asian-cup/csv/games.csv","label":"Every 2023 (played 2024) game with our pre-game probabilities","rows":51},{"file":"/data/asian-cup/csv/ratings.csv","label":"Current ratings","rows":24},{"file":"/data/asian-cup/csv/standings.csv","label":"The table","rows":24},{"file":"/data/asian-cup/csv/track_record.csv","label":"Track record by season","rows":2},{"file":"/data/asian-cup/csv/all_games.csv","label":"Every game in the model's history, with the pre-game probability","rows":48930}],"parts":{"explorer":1}}