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FBS game since 2001 moves the ratings, and so do FBS teams' games against FCS opponents; a team new to the file starts 200 points below average. Only FBS teams appear in the tables and the playoff.","Before each season a team keeps part of last season's rating, then two things known in the summer move it: the recruiting talent on its roster and its returning production. Both weights are fit on the tuning seasons; the track record below shows each one's effect on the held-out seasons.","The polls are shown on the Rankings page, not used by the model. Tested on 2026-10-01 on the tuning seasons (2016-2023): adding the preseason AP poll on top of recruiting and returning production made the tuning seasons worse at every weight tried, and the latest AP poll before each game as a pre-game adjustment was fit to a weight of zero. On the held-out seasons a small poll weight moved the log loss by less than 0.0001 either way. The voters mostly follow results the ratings have already seen.","The playoff simulation takes the best-record team in each conference as its champion (conference title games are not simulated yet), puts the five best of those in, fills seven at-large places, and seeds by simulated wins and then rating. The committee's judgement is not modelled; its real rankings and seeding are on the Rankings page.","The market comparison uses the closing spread, turned into a win probability with a 15.5-point spread of outcomes."],"glossary":[],"notes":["Returning production counts offence only (passing, rushing and receiving yards): ESPN's defensive box scores are too patchy before 2023 to measure the same way every season. 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