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8":[0.4708,8],"Semi-finals":[0.4012,4],"Final":[0.6967,2]},"holdout":true,"tuning":false}],"n":9,"log_loss_pre":2.4355,"log_loss_base":2.6678,"fav_won":3,"fav_expected":2.6,"stage_names":["Super 12","Super 10","Super 8","Semi-finals","Final"],"stage_scores":{"Super 8":{"n":6,"log_loss":1.9894,"log_loss_base":2.0794},"Semi-finals":{"n":9,"log_loss":1.4586,"log_loss_base":1.3863},"Final":{"n":9,"log_loss":0.7446,"log_loss_base":0.6931},"Super 10":{"n":1,"log_loss":1.6373,"log_loss_base":2.3026},"Super 12":{"n":2,"log_loss":3.4759,"log_loss_base":2.4849}}}},"about":["Every nation is rated on all its men's T20 internationals, Elo-style, with the margin of victory (a win by wickets counts about 8 runs a wicket).","A season here is a World Cup cycle: every international from the day after one final to the next. Bilateral series are forecast and rated but aren't in the event's table.","The 2028 Men's T20 World Cup is simulated in full in every run: four groups of five play each other once, the top two in each go through to two Super 8 groups (a group winner with the other pairs' runners-up), the top two of each Super 8 group play the semi-finals, then the final.","The field isn't settled yet, so this is a provisional one: the hosts and the nations that would qualify on today's ratings, seeded into groups by rating. It changes as results come in and will be replaced by the real draw once it's announced.","Australia and New Zealand host the 2028 World Cup. The ICC hasn't published its dates, draw or full field yet, so the dates here are placeholders and the field is provisional: the hosts and the other eighteen nations from the 2026 World Cup, best-rated first."],"glossary":[],"notes":["Every international is treated as neutral: home advantage isn't modelled, because the archive doesn't say who was at home. That flatters touring sides a little.","Squad selection (rested stars, part-time associate sides) is not in the model.","Associate nations play each other far more than they play the full members, so their ratings are only loosely tied to the top sides'.","The champion record replays past World Cups from the archive, so a match abandoned without a result (or one the archive is missing) isn't in the replay, and sides level on points are split by run margins rather than net run rate: a replayed group can finish in a different order from the real one. An edition whose knockouts the archive can't piece together is left out."],"sources":[["Cricsheet","https://cricsheet.org/","Every men's T20 international ball by ball since 2005"],["ESPN","https://www.espn.com/cricket/","Internationals still to be played, and the latest results"],["ICC","https://www.icc-cricket.com/","Hosts and format of the next World Cup"],["Meteostat and Open-Meteo","https://meteostat.net/","Weather at the ground"]],"downloads":[{"file":"/data/icc/csv/games.csv","label":"Every Road to 2028 game with our pre-game probabilities","rows":502},{"file":"/data/icc/csv/ratings.csv","label":"Current ratings","rows":101},{"file":"/data/icc/csv/standings.csv","label":"The table","rows":20},{"file":"/data/icc/csv/season_odds.csv","label":"Season simulation","rows":20},{"file":"/data/icc/csv/track_record.csv","label":"Track record by season","rows":8},{"file":"/data/icc/csv/all_games.csv","label":"Every game in the model's history, with the pre-game probability","rows":3883}],"parts":{"explorer":1}}