How to read the odds
Every number on PodiumOracle is a chance, not a prediction of what will happen.
Chances, not calls
A forecast of 70% for a team is right when that team wins about seven times in ten over many such games, not when it wins this one. Upsets are part of a good model's record: if every 70% favourite won, the model would be under-confident. The track record page checks this for every league.
The bars and ribbons
Probability bars split 100% between the outcomes (win, draw, loss, or every team's title chance). Hover or tap a segment to see the exact figure; very small chances are gathered into "Other" so the bar stays readable.
When to trust a number less
- Early in a season, when ratings still carry a lot of last season.
- When team news breaks after the morning update (injuries, rested players, a new coach).
- In leagues where the track record shows the model only matches the simple baselines.
Terms
- Win chance
- The share of simulations (or the model's direct estimate) in which that side wins. 60% means the model expects that side to win six times in ten similar games.
- Favourite
- The side with the higher chance. A favourite losing is not a model failure unless it happens more often than the chance said.
- Season odds
- How often each outcome (making the playoffs, winning the title) happened across thousands of simulated seasons.
- Rating
- A number for strength; the gap between two ratings is what matters. 100 points is roughly a 64% chance on neutral ground in most leagues.
- Log loss
- The average penalty for each forecast: small when the winner was given a high chance, large when a confident call missed. Lower is better, and only comparable within a league.
- Calibration
- Whether the chances come true as often as they say. Well calibrated: things given 30% happen about 30% of the time.
- Base rate
- The simplest forecast: the home side's historical win rate, or every entrant equal.
- Recent form
- A forecast from the last few results only, to check the model adds something beyond who's hot.
- Market
- Closing betting odds with the bookmaker's margin taken out.
- Held-back seasons
- The most recent seasons, never used to choose the model's settings, used to test it fairly.