Frequently Asked Questions

What is PodiumOracle?

PodiumOracle is a free sports prediction site. It publishes win probabilities for every game, race and season across 95 leagues, from the NFL, NBA and Premier League to Formula 1, golf, tennis, cricket, rugby and SailGP, along with title odds, power ratings and each model's track record. It is run by BFT LLC.

Is PodiumOracle free?

Yes. Every forecast, page and chart is free, with no account needed. Podium+ ($1.99 a month or $19.99 a year) adds CSV downloads of every league's data, removes ads, allows unlimited favourites and gives a larger allowance for questions to Podium, the site's assistant.

Which sports and leagues does PodiumOracle cover?

95 leagues and competitions: American and Canadian football, basketball, baseball, ice hockey, soccer, motor racing, golf, tennis, rugby union and league, cricket, Australian football, mixed martial arts, lacrosse, volleyball, sailing and powerboat racing. The home page lists every one by sport.

How accurate are PodiumOracle's predictions?

Every model is scored on recent seasons it never saw while its settings were chosen, and the results are published on the track record page and on each league's own track record page. Across 125,081 held-back games in 71 team-sport leagues, the side the model favoured won 67% of the time, and its forecasts scored 16% better than always backing the usual home win rate. On the 78,309 game prices the markets have given, the model's log loss (lower is better) was 0.716 against the bookmakers' 0.707, 0.667 against Kalshi's 0.652 and 0.662 against Polymarket's 0.668. A good forecast is judged over many games, not one: a 70% favourite should still lose about three times in ten.

How are the win probabilities calculated?

Each team, driver or player has a rating that rises and falls with their results (an Elo-style rating for head-to-head sports, a Plackett–Luce model for races, strokes gained for golf). The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage and any adjustment that has proved its worth (starting quarterbacks and goalies, surfaces, weather), becomes the chance of each result. How the models work has the details.

How are season and title odds worked out?

The rest of the season is played out thousands of times, game by game, with each game's chance from the current ratings and the league's real points system, tiebreakers and playoff format. A team's title chance is the share of those simulated seasons it wins.

How do PodiumOracle's forecasts compare with betting markets, Polymarket and Kalshi?

Each league's track record page scores the model against the markets on the same finished games: bookmakers' closing lines, and Polymarket's and Kalshi's prices before the start, once 30 games have a price. Markets know about late team news the model can't see, so they are usually a little more accurate; the model being close to them, without that news, is the good result. Game pages show the markets' prices next to the model's.

How often are the forecasts updated?

Every league is rebuilt at least twice a day, at 00:00 and 12:00 UTC, and scores and live win probabilities update every few minutes while games are on, wherever a live feed exists.

What does a 70% chance mean?

It means that across many games given 70%, that side should win about seven in ten. It isn't a promise about this game. How to read the odds explains the numbers, bars and terms on every page.

Where does the data come from?

Results, schedules and live scores come from public sources such as ESPN, the leagues' own sites and open datasets (nflverse, sportsdataverse, Jeff Sackmann's tennis data, Jolpica for Formula 1), with weather from Meteostat and Open-Meteo and market prices from OddsPapi, Polymarket and Kalshi. Data sources lists every source and the leagues it feeds.

Is PodiumOracle betting advice?

No. The numbers are estimates from public statistical models, published for information and entertainment. They don't account for late team news and are no guarantee of any result. If you bet, only bet what you can afford to lose.

Is there a site like FiveThirtyEight for sports predictions?

FiveThirtyEight stopped publishing sports forecasts in 2023. PodiumOracle publishes the same kind of model-based forecasts (win probabilities, season simulations, title odds and ratings) for 95 leagues, and shows how each model did on seasons it never saw.

Is there a site like MoneyPuck for other sports?

PodiumOracle does what MoneyPuck does for the NHL across 95 leagues: a chance for every game, a live win probability chart that can be replayed for past games, season and playoff odds, power ratings and an honest track record, for the NHL too.

Can I use PodiumOracle's numbers or data?

Yes, for personal, research and non-commercial use: quote or share any forecast with a link back to the page it came from. Podium+ subscribers can download each league's games, ratings and predictions as CSV files from its data page. Commercial use or bulk redistribution needs written permission; ask at support@podiumoracle.com.

Do I need an account?

No. An account is free and syncs your favourite leagues, teams and players across devices, gives more questions to Podium, the assistant, and lets you post in league discussions and live game chats.

What is Podium, the assistant?

Podium is the chat assistant in the corner of every page. It answers questions about any league from the same numbers the pages show, and links to where they are. Signed-out visitors get a few questions a day.

How do I report a bug, suggest a feature or get in touch?

Use the contact page: report a bug from any page (a replay of the visit can be attached, so we see what happened), vote for or suggest features on the ideas board, or email support@podiumoracle.com.