Track record
How PodiumOracle's predictions did on held-back seasons in every league: log loss against simple baselines and betting markets, and how often the favourite won.
Every league
| League | Held back | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SailGP | 2026 | 94 | 1.917 | 27% |
| 52 SUPER SERIES | 2024 to 2026 | 117 | 2.430 | 17% |
| AFC Asian Cup | 2023 (played 2024) | 51 | 0.886 | 57% |
| AFL | 2024 to 2026 | 649 | 0.617 | 68% |
| AHL | 2024–25 to 2025–26 | 2476 | 0.683 | 57% |
| ATP | 2024 to 2026 | 8734 | 0.628 | 63% |
| America's Cup | 2024 to 2026 | 136 | 1.053 | 60% |
| Belgian Pro League | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 689 | 1.012 | 50% |
| Bellator | 2022 to 2024 | 433 | 0.653 | 66% |
| Big Bash | 2025 to 2026 | 84 | 0.667 | 61% |
| Brasileirão | 2024 to 2026 | 1037 | 1.012 | 50% |
| Bundesliga | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 648 | 0.991 | 52% |
| CFL | 2024 to 2026 | 233 | 0.665 | 57% |
| Champions Cup | 2024–25 to 2025–26 | 126 | 0.580 | 76% |
| Champions League | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 396 | 0.856 | 61% |
| College football | 2024 to 2026 | 8694 | 0.487 | 76% |
| Conference League | 2024–25 to 2025–26 | 306 | 0.973 | 53% |
| DP World Tour | 2024 to 2026 | 95 | 4.462 | 4% |
| ECHL | 2024–25 to 2025–26 | 2283 | 0.669 | 59% |
| EFL Championship | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 1209 | 1.048 | 45% |
| Eredivisie | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 681 | 0.972 | 53% |
| EuroLeague | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 742 | 0.625 | 64% |
| Europa League | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 396 | 0.975 | 55% |
| FIFA World Cup | 2024 to 2026 | 2723 | 0.869 | 60% |
| Formula 1 | 2024 to 2026 | 62 | 1.778 | 32% |
| Formula 2 | 2024 to 2026 | 39 | 2.866 | 5% |
| Formula 3 | 2024 to 2026 | 29 | 3.144 | 10% |
| Formula E | 2023–24 to 2025–26 | 49 | 2.855 | 14% |
| ICC Men's Cricket World Cup | Road to 2019 to Road to 2027 | 1263 | 0.635 | 64% |
| ICC Men's T20 World Cup | Road to 2024 to Road to 2028 | 2042 | 0.591 | 67% |
| ICC Women's Cricket World Cup | Road to 2022 to Road to 2029 | 441 | 0.563 | 71% |
| ICC Women's T20 World Cup | Road to 2024 to Road to 2028 | 1342 | 0.550 | 72% |
| ICC World Test Championship | Road to 2023 to Road to 2027 | 209 | 0.898 | 59% |
| IPL | 2024 to 2026 | 215 | 0.697 | 49% |
| IndyCar | 2024 to 2026 | 53 | 2.432 | 30% |
| LIV Golf | 2024 to 2026 | 40 | 3.305 | 10% |
| LPGA Tour | 2024 to 2026 | 84 | 3.806 | 19% |
| La Liga | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 829 | 0.972 | 53% |
| Liga MX | Apertura 2025 to Apertura 2026 | 418 | 1.006 | 52% |
| Liga Profesional | Clausura 2025 to Clausura 2026 | 660 | 1.071 | 42% |
| Ligue 1 | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 657 | 0.986 | 54% |
| Liiga | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 1142 | 0.671 | 59% |
| MLB | 2024 to 2026 | 7351 | 0.681 | 56% |
| MLS | 2024 to 2026 | 1450 | 1.049 | 47% |
| Moto2 | 2024 to 2026 | 58 | 2.628 | 17% |
| MotoGP | 2024 to 2026 | 115 | 1.855 | 36% |
| NASCAR Cup Series | 2024 to 2026 | 100 | 3.123 | 11% |
| NBA | 2024–25 to 2025–26 | 2643 | 0.599 | 68% |
| NBL | 2025–26 to 2026–27 | 189 | 0.634 | 61% |
| NCAA baseball | 2024 to 2026 | 11338 | 0.602 | 67% |
| NCAA men's basketball | 2024–25 to 2025–26 | 12592 | 0.513 | 74% |
| NCAA men's hockey | 2024–25 to 2025–26 | 2314 | 0.844 | 61% |
| NCAA men's lacrosse | 2024 to 2026 | 1383 | 0.511 | 74% |
| NCAA softball | 2024 to 2026 | 9144 | 0.503 | 75% |
| NCAA women's basketball | 2024–25 to 2025–26 | 11665 | 0.463 | 77% |
| NCAA women's hockey | 2024–25 to 2025–26 | 1550 | 0.727 | 69% |
| NCAA women's lacrosse | 2024 to 2026 | 2629 | 0.455 | 77% |
| NCAA women's volleyball | 2024 to 2026 | 8775 | 0.505 | 75% |
| NFL | 2024 to 2026 | 603 | 0.622 | 66% |
| NHL | 2024–25 to 2025–26 | 2792 | 0.679 | 56% |
| NRL | 2024 to 2026 | 627 | 0.693 | 63% |
| NWSL | 2024 to 2026 | 581 | 1.012 | 50% |
| National Lacrosse League | 2024–25 to 2025–26 | 275 | 0.679 | 57% |
| Nations Championship | 2024 to 2026 | 160 | 0.555 | 75% |
| OHL | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 1533 | 0.626 | 65% |
| PFL | 2024 to 2026 | 388 | 0.639 | 61% |
| PGA Tour | 2024 to 2026 | 132 | 4.303 | 14% |
| PGA Tour Champions | 2024 to 2026 | 76 | 3.352 | 12% |
| PSL | 2024 to 2026 | 108 | 0.694 | 55% |
| PWHL | 2024–25 to 2025–26 | 235 | 0.678 | 55% |
| Premier League | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 810 | 1.014 | 50% |
| Premiership | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 188 | 0.609 | 71% |
| Primeira Liga | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 674 | 0.933 | 53% |
| QMJHL | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 1334 | 0.627 | 63% |
| Rugby World Cup | 2019 to 2023 | 93 | 0.411 | 85% |
| SA20 | 2025 to 2026 | 60 | 0.696 | 58% |
| SHL | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 834 | 0.674 | 60% |
| Saudi Pro League | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 675 | 0.926 | 56% |
| Scottish Premiership | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 498 | 0.980 | 53% |
| Serie A | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 810 | 0.986 | 52% |
| Six Nations | 2024 to 2026 | 45 | 0.622 | 73% |
| Super Rugby Pacific | 2024 to 2026 | 257 | 0.613 | 71% |
| Süper Lig | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 702 | 0.978 | 52% |
| The Hundred | 2024 to 2026 | 99 | 0.667 | 57% |
| The Rugby Championship | 2023 to 2025 | 30 | 0.676 | 73% |
| Top 14 | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 395 | 0.638 | 76% |
| UFC | 2024 to 2026 | 1559 | 0.668 | 60% |
| United Rugby Championship | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 305 | 0.704 | 70% |
| WHL | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 1709 | 0.623 | 65% |
| WNBA | 2024 to 2026 | 905 | 0.600 | 69% |
| WTA | 2024 to 2026 | 9176 | 0.627 | 63% |
| Women's Super League | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 285 | 0.884 | 60% |
| World Match Racing Tour | 2024 to 2026 | 82 | 1.731 | 49% |