Track record
How PodiumOracle's predictions did on held-back seasons in every league: log loss against simple baselines and betting markets, and how often the favourite won.
Across 132,913 held-back games in 71 team-sport leagues, the team the model favoured won 67%, and its forecasts were 16.5% better than the base rate. In 21,950 tennis matches and fights the model's favourite won 63%. In 1,313 races, regattas and golf tournaments the model's favourite won 23%, against a field of many. Before 172 held-back seasons, the model gave the eventual champion 18% on average, against 6% for a random pick.
Against the betting markets
Polymarket and Kalshi prices, and bookmakers' odds, before each start, scored on exactly the same finished games as the model. A negative figure means the market was more accurate.
| Type | Market | Leagues | Priced | Model log loss | Market log loss | Model vs market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team games | Bookmakers | 53 | 20,204 | 0.715 | 0.702 | −1.8% |
| Team games | Kalshi | 44 | 33,989 | 0.664 | 0.647 | −2.5% |
| Team games | Polymarket | 45 | 34,990 | 0.657 | 0.664 | 1.0% |
| Tennis matches and fights | Bookmakers | 4 | 4,520 | 0.641 | 0.588 | −9.1% |
| Tennis matches and fights | Kalshi | 3 | 4,392 | 0.641 | 0.588 | −9.1% |
| Tennis matches and fights | Polymarket | 3 | 4,866 | 0.645 | 0.587 | −9.8% |
| Races and tournaments | Kalshi | 8 | 259 | 3.271 | 3.069 | −6.6% |
| Races and tournaments | Polymarket | 2 | 51 | 3.048 | 2.770 | −10.0% |
Every league
| League | Held back | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52 SUPER SERIES | 2024 to 2026 | 125 | 2.437 | 16% |
| AFC Asian Cup | 2019 to 2023 (played 2024) | 102 | 0.841 | 63% |
| AFL | 2024 to 2026 | 650 | 0.617 | 68% |
| AHL | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 2700 | 0.684 | 56% |
| ATP | 2024 to 2026 | 9271 | 0.628 | 63% |
| America's Cup | 2024 to 2026 | 143 | 1.085 | 59% |
| Belgian Pro League | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 725 | 1.007 | 50% |
| Bellator | 2022 to 2024 | 433 | 0.649 | 66% |
| Big Bash | 2025 to 2026 | 84 | 0.667 | 61% |
| Brasileirão | 2024 to 2026 | 1099 | 1.005 | 51% |
| Bundesliga | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 693 | 0.990 | 52% |
| CFL | 2024 to 2026 | 257 | 0.660 | 58% |
| Champions Cup | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 138 | 0.590 | 77% |
| Champions League | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 450 | 0.857 | 61% |
| College football | 2024 to 2026 | 10786 | 0.489 | 75% |
| Conference League | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 360 | 0.974 | 54% |
| DP World Tour | 2024 to 2026 | 100 | 4.473 | 5% |
| E1 World Championship | 2025 to 2026 | 12 | 2.254 | 17% |
| ECHL | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 2421 | 0.670 | 59% |
| EFL Championship | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 1294 | 1.048 | 45% |
| Eredivisie | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 726 | 0.979 | 52% |
| EuroLeague | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 834 | 0.628 | 64% |
| Europa League | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 450 | 0.972 | 55% |
| FIFA World Cup | 2024 to 2026 | 3007 | 0.873 | 60% |
| Formula 1 | 2024 to 2026 | 68 | 1.783 | 31% |
| Formula 2 | 2024 to 2026 | 40 | 2.836 | 8% |
| Formula 3 | 2024 to 2026 | 29 | 3.139 | 10% |
| Formula E | 2023–24 to 2025–26 | 49 | 2.855 | 14% |
| ICC Men's Cricket World Cup | Road to 2019 to Road to 2027 | 1304 | 0.636 | 64% |
| ICC Men's T20 World Cup | Road to 2024 to Road to 2028 | 2119 | 0.586 | 67% |
| ICC Women's Cricket World Cup | Road to 2022 to Road to 2029 | 449 | 0.559 | 71% |
| ICC Women's T20 World Cup | Road to 2024 to Road to 2028 | 1372 | 0.549 | 72% |
| ICC World Test Championship | Road to 2023 to Road to 2027 | 215 | 0.908 | 58% |
| IPL | 2024 to 2026 | 215 | 0.697 | 49% |
| IndyCar | 2024 to 2026 | 52 | 2.467 | 31% |
| LIV Golf | 2024 to 2026 | 40 | 3.305 | 10% |
| LPGA Tour | 2024 to 2026 | 89 | 3.785 | 20% |
| La Liga | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 880 | 0.969 | 54% |
| Liga MX | Apertura 2025 to Apertura 2026 | 480 | 1.019 | 51% |
| Liga Profesional | Clausura 2025 to Clausura 2026 | 750 | 1.066 | 43% |
| Ligue 1 | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 702 | 0.981 | 54% |
| Liiga | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 1253 | 0.673 | 59% |
| MLB | 2024 to 2026 | 7418 | 0.680 | 56% |
| MLS | 2024 to 2026 | 1572 | 1.046 | 47% |
| Moto2 | 2024 to 2026 | 61 | 2.634 | 18% |
| MotoGP | 2024 to 2026 | 123 | 1.783 | 37% |
| NASCAR Cup Series | 2024 to 2026 | 107 | 3.089 | 10% |
| NBA | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 2807 | 0.596 | 67% |
| NBL | 2025–26 to 2026–27 | 239 | 0.649 | 59% |
| NCAA baseball | 2024 to 2026 | 11338 | 0.602 | 67% |
| NCAA men's basketball | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 13235 | 0.503 | 74% |
| NCAA men's hockey | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 2591 | 0.842 | 61% |
| NCAA men's lacrosse | 2024 to 2026 | 1383 | 0.511 | 74% |
| NCAA softball | 2024 to 2026 | 9144 | 0.503 | 75% |
| NCAA women's basketball | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 12298 | 0.452 | 78% |
| NCAA women's hockey | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 1776 | 0.718 | 70% |
| NCAA women's lacrosse | 2024 to 2026 | 2629 | 0.455 | 77% |
| NCAA women's volleyball | 2024 to 2026 | 11010 | 0.501 | 75% |
| NFL | 2024 to 2026 | 706 | 0.620 | 66% |
| NHL | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 3086 | 0.676 | 57% |
| NRL | 2024 to 2026 | 629 | 0.693 | 63% |
| NWSL | 2024 to 2026 | 622 | 1.003 | 51% |
| National Lacrosse League | 2024–25 to 2025–26 | 275 | 0.679 | 58% |
| Nations Championship | 2024 to 2026 | 170 | 0.547 | 76% |
| OHL | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 1692 | 0.630 | 64% |
| PFL | 2024 to 2026 | 401 | 0.639 | 61% |
| PGA Tour | 2024 to 2026 | 137 | 4.303 | 14% |
| PGA Tour Champions | 2024 to 2026 | 81 | 3.404 | 11% |
| PSL | 2024 to 2026 | 108 | 0.694 | 55% |
| PWHL | 2025–26 | 133 | 0.667 | 59% |
| Premier League | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 860 | 1.013 | 50% |
| Premiership | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 211 | 0.615 | 70% |
| Primeira Liga | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 710 | 0.929 | 54% |
| QMJHL | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 1468 | 0.632 | 63% |
| Rugby World Cup | 2019 to 2023 | 93 | 0.411 | 85% |
| SA20 | 2025 to 2026 | 60 | 0.696 | 58% |
| SHL | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 917 | 0.669 | 61% |
| SailGP | 2026 | 11 | 2.200 | 27% |
| Saudi Pro League | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 716 | 0.920 | 56% |
| Scottish Premiership | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 531 | 0.983 | 52% |
| Serie A | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 870 | 0.979 | 53% |
| Six Nations | 2024 to 2026 | 45 | 0.622 | 73% |
| Super Rugby Pacific | 2024 to 2026 | 257 | 0.613 | 71% |
| Süper Lig | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 747 | 0.969 | 53% |
| The Hundred | 2024 to 2026 | 99 | 0.667 | 57% |
| The Ocean Race | Europe 2025 to Atlantic 2026 | 8 | 1.422 | 75% |
| The Rugby Championship | 2023 to 2025 | 30 | 0.676 | 73% |
| Top 14 | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 437 | 0.630 | 76% |
| UFC | 2024 to 2026 | 1663 | 0.668 | 60% |
| United Rugby Championship | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 342 | 0.699 | 69% |
| WHL | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 1889 | 0.632 | 63% |
| WNBA | 2024 to 2026 | 928 | 0.596 | 69% |
| WTA | 2024 to 2026 | 10182 | 0.629 | 63% |
| Women's Super League | 2024–25 to 2026–27 | 327 | 0.878 | 61% |
| World Match Racing Tour | 2024 to 2026 | 38 | 1.804 | 37% |