How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 8734 | 0.628 | 63% |
| Base rate | 8734 | 0.693 | 50% |
| Recent form | 8734 | 0.674 | 58% |
Every match is on neutral ground: tennis has no home side in the model, though a home crowd can matter at Davis Cup and some tournaments.
A win moves the ratings more the more games it was won by (the set scores, from the archive and ESPN): on the held-back seasons that beat a rating that only knows who won.
Matches ended by a retirement before a set was finished, and walkovers, are left out.
Best-of-five matches at the majors favour the better player more than best-of-three; the model doesn't separate them yet.
Injuries and withdrawals are not known to the model until they show in results.
Tournament winner odds (the draw simulated) are not on the page yet.