How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 433 | 0.653 | 66% |
| Base rate | 433 | 0.693 | 50% |
| Recent form | 433 | 0.657 | 62% |
Fighters move between promotions, so every rating also counts their UFC and PFL fights; only Bellator fights are forecast and scored in the track record.
A fight is a win or a loss for the rating, however it ended; a draw counts half each and a no contest not at all.
Ratings carry from one fight to the next with no pull back to average: fighters don't have seasons.
There is no weather here: cards are indoors.
Bellator was folded into the PFL in 2025; the ratings stop with its last cards.
Weight changes, layoffs, age and camp changes are not in the model.
Betting lines aren't in the source, so there is no market comparison.