12 Nov 2026
DP World Tour Championship
Each player's chance from 20,000 simulations of the tournament, using ratings fit only on earlier results.
The field
| Player | Win | Podium |
|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Chacarra | 6% | 22% |
| Jon Rahm | 5% | 22% |
| Rory McIlroy | 5% | 21% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 4% | 19% |
| Patrick Reed | 4% | 16% |
| Daniel Hillier | 4% | 15% |
| Oliver Lindell | 4% | 16% |
| Jacob Skov Olesen | 3% | 15% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 3% | 14% |
| Ewen Ferguson | 3% | 13% |
| Angel Ayora | 3% | 14% |
| Jayden Schaper | 3% | 13% |
| Matt Wallace | 3% | 13% |
| Bernd Wiesberger | 3% | 13% |
| David Puig | 2% | 12% |
| Francesco Laporta | 2% | 10% |
| Matthew Jordan | 2% | 11% |
| Casey Jarvis | 2% | 11% |
| Calum Hill | 2% | 10% |
| Joost Luiten | 2% | 10% |
| Joe Dean | 2% | 9% |
| Adam Scott | 2% | 11% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 2% | 10% |
| Victor Perez | 2% | 10% |
| Marcus Armitage | 2% | 9% |
| Aaron Rai | 2% | 9% |
| Jorge Campillo | 2% | 7% |
| Gregorio De Leo | 2% | 9% |
| Mikael Lindberg | 2% | 8% |
| Martin Couvra | 1% | 9% |
| Davis Bryant | 1% | 8% |
| Niklas Nørgaard | 1% | 7% |
| Angel Hidalgo | 1% | 7% |
| Andy Sullivan | 1% | 7% |
| Ryan Fox | 1% | 7% |
| Hennie Du Plessis | 1% | 7% |
| Jeff Winther | 1% | 7% |
| Nacho Elvira | 1% | 8% |
| Frederic LaCroix | 1% | 7% |
| Dan Bradbury | 1% | 7% |
Calendar
- Dubai Invitational 15 Jan 2026, won by Nacho Elvira
- Hero Dubai Desert Classic 22 Jan 2026, won by Patrick Reed
- Bahrain Championship 29 Jan 2026, won by Freddy Schott
- Qatar Masters 5 Feb 2026, won by Patrick Reed
- Magical Kenya Open 19 Feb 2026, won by Casey Jarvis
- Investec SA Open Championship 26 Feb 2026, won by Casey Jarvis
- Joburg Open 5 Mar 2026, won by Dan Bradbury
- Hainan Classic pres. by MAEXTRO 19 Mar 2026, won by Jordan Gumberg
- Hero Indian Open 26 Mar 2026, won by Alex Fitzpatrick
- Volvo China Open 23 Apr 2026, won by Bernd Wiesberger
- Turkish Airlines Open 30 Apr 2026, won by Mikael Lindberg
- Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship 7 May 2026, won by Yurav Premlall
- Soudal Open 21 May 2026, won by Richard Sterne
- Austrian Alpine Open pres. by Kitzbühel Tirol 28 May 2026, won by Kota Kaneko
- KLM Open 4 Jun 2026, won by Eugenio Chacarra
- DS Automobiles 83° Open d'Italia 25 Jun 2026, won by Eugenio Chacarra
- BMW International Open 2 Jul 2026, won by Michael Hollick
- Danish Golf Championship 13 Aug 2026, won by Jeff Winther
- Nexo Championship 20 Aug 2026, won by Scott Jamieson
- Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo 27 Aug 2026, won by Joe Dean
- Omega European Masters 3 Sep 2026, won by Thriston Lawrence
- Amgen Irish Open 10 Sep 2026, won by Shane Lowry
- BMW PGA Championship 17 Sep 2026, won by J.J. Spaun
- FedEx Open de France 24 Sep 2026, won by Matt Fitzpatrick
- Alfred Dunhill Links Championship 1 Oct 2026, won by Adrian Meronk
- Open de España pres. by Madrid 8 Oct 2026, won by Grant Forrest
- DP World India Championship 15 Oct 2026, won by Eugenio Chacarra
- Genesis Championship 22 Oct 2026, won by Yuto Katsuragawa
- Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship 5 Nov 2026, won by Jon Rahm
- DP World Tour Championship 12 Nov 2026
- BMW Australian PGA Championship 26 Nov 2026
- Capital.com Australian Open 3 Dec 2026
- Nedbank Golf Challenge 3 Dec 2026
- AfrAsia Bank Mauritius Open 10 Dec 2026
Questions and answers
Who will win the DP World Tour Championship?
Eugenio Chacarra is the favourite at 6%, ahead of Jon Rahm (5%), Rory McIlroy (5%) and Tommy Fleetwood (4%), from 20,000 simulations of the tournament with PodiumOracle's ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's DP World Tour predictions?
On 100 tournaments from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, its favourite won 5% of the time in fields of about 140, and it gave the eventual winner 2% on average. Its log loss was 4.473, against 4.916 for treating every player as equal and 4.566 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished events, its log loss was 4.442 against Kalshi's 4.399 over 26 tournaments (lower is better).