14 Nov 2026 · State Farm Center
Sam Houston Bearkats at Illinois Fighting Illini
We have Illinois Fighting Illini at 95.4% and Sam Houston Bearkats at 4.6%.
Ratings going in: Illinois 2130, Sam Houston 1722, plus 90 for playing at home.
Who is playing: SHSU +0.5 game score against its usual; ILL +4.1 game score against its usual. Net 29 rating points to ILL.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Illinois | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 95.4% | 4.6% |
| Polymarket | 88.0% | 12.0% |
| Kalshi | 98.5% | 1.5% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Sam Houston Bearkats LWW, Illinois Fighting Illini WWL.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Sam Houston Bearkats at Illinois Fighting Illini?
PodiumOracle's model makes Illinois Fighting Illini the favourite at 95%, with Sam Houston Bearkats at 5%. The markets give Illinois Fighting Illini 99% on Kalshi. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 95% favourite still loses 5% of the time.
When and where is Sam Houston Bearkats at Illinois Fighting Illini?
14 November 2026, at State Farm Center. The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.