PodiumOracle NCAA men's basketball

Basketball · 2026–27 season

NCAA men's basketball forecasts

Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the national championship odds. Favourite right now: Duke Blue Devils, 17%.

Upcoming

DateGameAwayHome
12 Nov 2026Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at Abilene Christian Wildcats75%25%
12 Nov 2026Jackson State Tigers at Southern Miss Golden Eagles12%88%
12 Nov 2026Valparaiso Beacons at South Dakota State Jackrabbits65%35%
12 Nov 2026Erskine Flying Fleet at Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs36%64%
12 Nov 2026Cal Poly Mustangs at Grand Canyon Lopes9%91%
12 Nov 2026Nevada Wolf Pack at UC Santa Barbara Gauchos68%32%
12 Nov 2026Portland State Vikings at Colorado State Rams13%87%
12 Nov 2026Lindenwood Lions at Nebraska Cornhuskers3%97%
12 Nov 2026Oakland Golden Grizzlies at Boise State Broncos7%93%
12 Nov 2026Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at UCLA Bruins1%99%
12 Nov 2026UTSA Roadrunners at Seattle U Redhawks6%94%
12 Nov 2026Pacific Tigers at Long Beach State Beach73%27%
12 Nov 2026Chicago State Cougars at California Baptist Lancers6%94%
12 Nov 2026Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Oregon Ducks1%99%
12 Nov 2026Lincoln (CA) Oaklanders at UC Irvine Anteaters3%97%
12 Nov 2026USC Trojans at California Golden Bears44%56%
12 Nov 2026Kansas City Roos vs George Mason Patriots10%90%
12 Nov 2026Morgan State Bears at UMBC Retrievers17%83%
12 Nov 2026Johnson & Wales Griffins at Boston University Terriers12%88%
12 Nov 2026Bradley Braves vs Coppin State Eagles92%8%
12 Nov 2026Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Indiana Hoosiers9%91%
12 Nov 2026Mercyhurst Lakers at Penn State Nittany Lions27%73%
13 Nov 2026Niagara Purple Eagles at Bowling Green Falcons8%92%
13 Nov 2026Canisius Golden Griffins at Brown Bears25%75%
13 Nov 2026Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks at Rhode Island Rams6%94%
13 Nov 2026Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners at Western Illinois Leathernecks64%36%
13 Nov 2026Southern Utah Thunderbirds at High Point Panthers6%94%
13 Nov 2026Loyola Maryland Greyhounds at Towson Tigers8%92%
13 Nov 2026Mercer Bears at West Virginia Mountaineers13%87%
13 Nov 2026Stetson Hatters at Howard Bison12%88%
13 Nov 2026Monmouth Hawks at Quinnipiac Bobcats46%54%
13 Nov 2026Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Sacred Heart Pioneers27%73%
13 Nov 2026LaGrange Panthers at Kennesaw State Owls3%97%
13 Nov 2026Western Michigan Broncos at Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons33%67%
13 Nov 2026Virginia Lynchburg Dragons at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers3%97%
13 Nov 2026Richmond Spiders at Southern Illinois Salukis40%60%
13 Nov 2026Southern Jaguars at Minnesota Golden Gophers9%91%
13 Nov 2026Loyola Marymount Lions vs South Alabama Jaguars58%42%
13 Nov 2026Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas A&M Aggies22%78%
13 Nov 2026West Florida Argonauts at Alabama A&M Bulldogs25%75%
13 Nov 2026New Mexico State Aggies at UTEP Miners50%50%
13 Nov 2026Lincoln (CA) Oaklanders at Cal State Fullerton Titans8%92%
13 Nov 2026Montana State Bobcats at BYU Cougars7%93%
13 Nov 2026UC Riverside Highlanders at San José State Spartans36%64%
13 Nov 2026Grace University Lancers at Cal State Northridge Matadors9%91%
13 Nov 2026Mary Baldwin Fighting Squirrels at VMI Keydets37%63%
13 Nov 2026Viterbo V-Hawks at Green Bay Phoenix8%92%
13 Nov 2026West Florida Argonauts vs Cleveland State Vikings36%64%
13 Nov 2026Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders at Florida State Seminoles13%87%
13 Nov 2026North Alabama Lions at Miami Hurricanes3%97%
13 Nov 2026Georgetown Hoyas at Clemson Tigers18%82%
13 Nov 2026Bryant Bulldogs at Rutgers Scarlet Knights5%95%
13 Nov 2026Pittsburgh Panthers at Butler Bulldogs49%51%
14 Nov 2026Merrimack Warriors at Florida Gators2%98%
14 Nov 2026Georgia Bulldogs at North Carolina Tar Heels18%82%
14 Nov 2026Tennessee State Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers4%96%
14 Nov 2026Long Island University Sharks at Fordham Rams29%71%
14 Nov 2026Harvard Crimson at George Washington Revolutionaries37%63%
14 Nov 2026Sam Houston Bearkats at Illinois Fighting Illini5%95%
14 Nov 2026Troy Trojans at NC State Wolfpack15%85%
14 Nov 2026Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers at Virginia Tech Hokies14%86%
14 Nov 2026Yale Bulldogs at Northeastern Huskies81%19%
14 Nov 2026Chattanooga Mocs at Elon Phoenix34%66%
14 Nov 2026Iona Gaels at Hofstra Pride17%83%
14 Nov 2026Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Kentucky Wildcats1%99%
14 Nov 2026Prairie View A&M Panthers at Vanderbilt Commodores2%98%
14 Nov 2026Florida International Panthers at Florida Gulf Coast Eagles46%54%
14 Nov 2026Columbia Lions at Bucknell Bison66%34%
14 Nov 2026Marist Red Foxes at Lehigh Mountain Hawks48%52%
14 Nov 2026Northern Iowa Panthers at Michigan State Spartans9%91%
14 Nov 2026App State Mountaineers at Charlotte 49ers40%60%
14 Nov 2026Ohio Bobcats at Purdue Boilermakers4%96%
14 Nov 2026Champion Christian Tigers at UT Martin Skyhawks2%98%
14 Nov 2026Kentucky State Thorobreds at Eastern Kentucky Colonels18%82%
14 Nov 2026Ohio State Buckeyes at UConn Huskies14%86%
14 Nov 2026Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders29%71%
14 Nov 2026North Carolina Central Eagles at Liberty Flames5%95%
14 Nov 2026South Dakota Coyotes at Drake Bulldogs12%88%
14 Nov 2026Fairleigh Dickinson Knights at Oklahoma Sooners3%97%
14 Nov 2026SIU Edwardsville Cougars at Duke Blue Devils1%99%
14 Nov 2026Virginia Cavaliers at Maryland Terrapins73%27%
14 Nov 2026Central Arkansas Bears at Arkansas Razorbacks6%94%
14 Nov 2026Milwaukee Panthers at TCU Horned Frogs5%95%
14 Nov 2026Georgia Southern Eagles at UCF Knights9%91%
14 Nov 2026College of Biblical Studies Ambassadors at Houston Christian Huskies9%91%
14 Nov 2026Alcorn State Braves at Tarleton State Texans16%84%
14 Nov 2026Wright State Raiders at Samford Bulldogs51%49%
14 Nov 2026Illinois State Redbirds at North Dakota State Bison54%46%
14 Nov 2026Texas Southern Tigers at Murray State Racers9%91%
14 Nov 2026Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Texas State Bobcats33%67%
14 Nov 2026Lindenwood Lions at Omaha Mavericks25%75%
14 Nov 2026Seton Hall Pirates at Alabama Crimson Tide7%93%
14 Nov 2026Xavier Musketeers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs60%40%
14 Nov 2026DePaul Blue Demons at Northwestern Wildcats25%75%
14 Nov 2026Arizona Wildcats at Auburn Tigers70%30%
14 Nov 2026Ball State Cardinals at SMU Mustangs6%94%
14 Nov 2026UL Monroe Warhawks at Arizona State Sun Devils1%99%
14 Nov 2026Cal Poly Mustangs at Idaho Vandals34%66%
14 Nov 2026Corban Warriors at Eastern Washington Eagles13%87%
14 Nov 2026Stanford Cardinal at UNLV Rebels41%59%
14 Nov 2026Chicago State Cougars at San Diego Toreros22%78%
14 Nov 2026Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Oregon State Beavers1%99%
14 Nov 2026UIC Flames at Saint Mary's Gaels14%86%
14 Nov 2026East Texas A&M Lions at Portland Pilots12%88%
14 Nov 2026UC San Diego Tritons at Utah State Aggies9%91%
14 Nov 2026Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at California Baptist Lancers5%95%
14 Nov 2026UNC Greensboro Spartans at Cornell Big Red21%79%
14 Nov 2026Tulane Green Wave at Akron Zips9%91%
14 Nov 2026St. Thomas Tommies at Army Black Knights80%20%
14 Nov 2026Stonehill Skyhawks at Texas Tech Red Raiders1%99%
14 Nov 2026Bradley Braves vs George Mason Patriots42%58%
14 Nov 2026Towson Tigers vs Morgan State Bears81%19%
14 Nov 2026Plattsburgh Cardinals at Vermont Catamounts10%90%
14 Nov 2026Montana Grizzlies at North Dakota Fighting Hawks39%61%
14 Nov 2026Drexel Dragons at Maine Black Bears70%30%
14 Nov 2026Northwest University Eagles at Washington State Cougars7%93%
14 Nov 2026Loyola Chicago Ramblers at Colorado State Rams9%91%
14 Nov 2026Miami (OH) RedHawks at Evansville Purple Aces88%12%
14 Nov 2026Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks3%97%
14 Nov 2026Coppin State Eagles at South Florida Bulls1%99%
14 Nov 2026Northern Illinois Huskies at Bellarmine Knights27%73%
14 Nov 2026Rice Owls at Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks14%86%
14 Nov 2026Cheyney (PA) Wolves at North Carolina A&T Aggies12%88%
14 Nov 2026The Citadel Bulldogs at North Florida Ospreys42%58%
14 Nov 2026Wofford Terriers at Queens University Royals25%75%
14 Nov 2026Coastal Georgia Mariner at Florida Atlantic Owls3%97%
14 Nov 2026Jackson State Tigers at Winthrop Eagles10%90%
14 Nov 2026Shenandoah Hornets at Radford Highlanders10%90%
14 Nov 2026Wyoming Cowboys at Denver Pioneers70%30%
14 Nov 2026Central Michigan Chippewas at Northern Kentucky Norse22%78%
14 Nov 2026LSU Tigers at Gonzaga Bulldogs6%94%
14 Nov 2026Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Wake Forest Demon Deacons14%86%
14 Nov 2026Lafayette Leopards at St. Bonaventure Bonnies10%90%
14 Nov 2026Air Force Falcons at Pacific Tigers10%90%
14 Nov 2026Delaware State Hornets at East Carolina Pirates10%90%
14 Nov 2026UNC Asheville Bulldogs at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets26%74%
14 Nov 2026Hampton Pirates at Navy Midshipmen14%86%
14 Nov 2026Longwood Lancers at Old Dominion Monarchs29%71%
14 Nov 2026South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs Northern Colorado Bears35%65%
14 Nov 2026Toledo Rockets at Detroit Mercy Titans47%53%
14 Nov 2026South Carolina Upstate Spartans at Campbell Fighting Camels15%85%
14 Nov 2026Utah Tech Trailblazers at California Golden Bears17%83%
14 Nov 2026Northern Iowa Panthers at Oakland Golden Grizzlies80%20%
14 Nov 2026Colorado Buffaloes at Providence Friars38%62%
14 Nov 2026Manhattan Jaspers at Le Moyne Dolphins34%66%
14 Nov 2026Marshall Thundering Herd at Youngstown State Penguins39%61%
14 Nov 2026Southern New Orleans Knights at LSU New Orleans Privateers8%92%
14 Nov 2026South Alabama Jaguars at North Texas Mean Green14%86%
14 Nov 2026Lincoln (CA) Oaklanders at Weber State Wildcats16%84%
14 Nov 2026UC Riverside Highlanders at Fresno State Bulldogs36%64%

Recent results

All results

DateGameScorePre-game chance of the winner
12 Nov 2026Santa Clara Broncos at North Texas Mean Green76–7165%
12 Nov 2026Macalester Scots at St. Thomas Tommies82–11992%
12 Nov 2026Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Houston Cougars46–9298%
12 Nov 2026Oral Roberts Golden Eagles at Tulsa Golden Hurricane71–8095%
12 Nov 2026Blackburn Beavers at Eastern Illinois Panthers44–10281%
12 Nov 2026Robert Morris Colonials at Arkansas Razorbacks53–7693%
12 Nov 2026Binghamton Bearcats at Misericordia Cougars87–6248%
12 Nov 2026Friends Falcons at Wichita State Shockers60–11397%
12 Nov 2026Pepperdine Waves at Sam Houston Bearkats77–8586%
12 Nov 2026Campbellsville Tigers at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers51–7891%
12 Nov 2026Marquette Golden Eagles at Michigan Wolverines70–8496%
12 Nov 2026UMass Lowell River Hawks at Massachusetts Minutemen62–7263%

Chance of winning the national championship

Every team

TeamMake tournamentSweet 16Final FourTitle gameWin title
Duke Blue Devils99%76%41%27%17%
Michigan Wolverines97%73%37%25%16%
Arizona Wildcats85%56%26%16%9%
Florida Gators95%62%26%15%8%
UConn Huskies98%65%26%15%8%
St. John's Red Storm96%58%21%11%5%
Houston Cougars91%54%20%11%5%
Michigan State Spartans90%51%18%9%4%
Vanderbilt Commodores91%47%14%6%3%
Alabama Crimson Tide64%31%10%5%2%

Questions and answers

Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 national championship?

Duke Blue Devils, at 17%, ahead of Michigan Wolverines (16%), Arizona Wildcats (9%) and Florida Gators (8%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.

What are the odds for the next NCAA men's basketball games?

According to PodiumOracle's model: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at Abilene Christian Wildcats (12 November 2026): Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 75%; Jackson State Tigers at Southern Miss Golden Eagles (12 November 2026): Southern Miss Golden Eagles 88%; Valparaiso Beacons at South Dakota State Jackrabbits (12 November 2026): Valparaiso Beacons 65%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.

How accurate are PodiumOracle's NCAA men's basketball predictions?

On 13,235 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 74% of the time. Its log loss was 0.503, against 0.629 for the base rate and 0.557 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.570 against the bookmakers' 0.545 over 2,619 games, 0.501 against Polymarket's 0.483 over 6,599 games and 0.516 against Kalshi's 0.483 over 5,588 games (lower is better).

How are the NCAA men's basketball predictions made?

Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the national championship odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.