12 Nov 2026 · Haas Pavilion
USC Trojans at California Golden Bears
We have California Golden Bears at 55.9% and USC Trojans at 44.1%.
Ratings going in: California 1787, USC 1810, plus 90 for playing at home.
Who is playing: USC +4.8 game score against its usual; CAL +1.6 game score against its usual. Net 26 rating points to USC.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | California | USC |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 24.7% | 75.3% |
| Polymarket | 23.5% | 76.5% |
| Kalshi | 23.0% | 77.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: USC Trojans WW, California Golden Bears WWL.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win USC Trojans at California Golden Bears?
PodiumOracle's model makes California Golden Bears the favourite at 56%, with USC Trojans at 44%. The markets give California Golden Bears 26% on Polymarket, 42% on Kalshi and 25% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 56% favourite still loses 44% of the time.
When and where is USC Trojans at California Golden Bears?
12 November 2026, at Haas Pavilion. The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.