Division I
North Carolina Tar Heels
Rated 2335 (No. 1 of 133), 16–1 this season, 44% to win the national championship.
Season outlook
From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season from today's ratings.
- 100%
- Make tournament
- 98%
- Second round
- 90%
- Quarterfinal
- 79%
- Final Four
- 66%
- Title game
- 44%
- Win title
- 15.2
- Projected wins
Rating
North Carolina Tar Heels is rated 2335, No. 1 of 133. The gap between two ratings is what the model turns into a win chance: about 100 points makes a 64% favourite on a neutral ground.
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May 2026 | North Carolina Tar Heels at Northwestern Wildcats | 11–14 | 39% |
| 22 May 2026 | Maryland Terrapins at North Carolina Tar Heels | 6–16 | 91% |
| 14 May 2026 | Stanford Cardinal at North Carolina Tar Heels | 11–14 | 89% |
| 10 May 2026 | Clemson Tigers at North Carolina Tar Heels | 6–17 | 91% |
Questions and answers
What is North Carolina Tar Heels' chance of winning the 2027 national championship?
44%, from 10,000 simulations of the next season. North Carolina Tar Heels are No. 1 of 133 in PodiumOracle's power ratings, updated 12 November 2026.