Lacrosse · 2026 season over
NCAA women's lacrosse forecasts
The 2026 season is over. Until the 2027 schedule is out, here is an early look: last season's schedule played 10,000 times a year on, with every rating carried over the way the model carries it between seasons. Early favourite: North Carolina Tar Heels, 44%. The full early look.
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May 2026 | North Carolina Tar Heels at Northwestern Wildcats | 11–14 | 39% |
| 22 May 2026 | Maryland Terrapins at North Carolina Tar Heels | 6–16 | 91% |
| 22 May 2026 | Johns Hopkins Blue Jays at Northwestern Wildcats | 11–16 | 85% |
| 14 May 2026 | Stony Brook Seawolves at Johns Hopkins Blue Jays | 12–13 | 51% |
| 14 May 2026 | Colorado Buffaloes at Northwestern Wildcats | 12–13 | 90% |
| 14 May 2026 | Navy Midshipmen at Maryland Terrapins | 10–14 | 64% |
| 14 May 2026 | Stanford Cardinal at North Carolina Tar Heels | 11–14 | 89% |
| 10 May 2026 | Clemson Tigers at North Carolina Tar Heels | 6–17 | 91% |
| 10 May 2026 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Maryland Terrapins | 8–11 | 88% |
| 10 May 2026 | Boston College Eagles at Stony Brook Seawolves | 9–10 | 55% |
| 10 May 2026 | Army Black Knights at Johns Hopkins Blue Jays | 13–21 | 79% |
| 10 May 2026 | Stanford Cardinal at Michigan Wolverines | 13–12 | 48% |
Chance of winning the national championship
| Team | Make tournament | Second round | Quarterfinal | Final Four | Title game | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 100% | 98% | 90% | 79% | 66% | 44% |
| Northwestern Wildcats | 100% | 97% | 88% | 75% | 60% | 34% |
| Stanford Cardinal | 100% | 82% | 53% | 27% | 10% | 3% |
| Maryland Terrapins | >99% | 78% | 47% | 23% | 8% | 3% |
| Stony Brook Seawolves | >99% | 79% | 48% | 22% | 7% | 2% |
| Johns Hopkins Blue Jays | >99% | 74% | 39% | 17% | 6% | 2% |
| Clemson Tigers | >99% | 75% | 42% | 19% | 6% | 2% |
| Boston College Eagles | >99% | 72% | 37% | 16% | 6% | 2% |
| Michigan Wolverines | >99% | 70% | 36% | 15% | 5% | 1% |
| Syracuse Orange | 99% | 66% | 31% | 13% | 4% | 1% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2027 national championship?
North Carolina Tar Heels, at 44%, ahead of Northwestern Wildcats (34%), Stanford Cardinal (3%) and Maryland Terrapins (3%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the next season, on last season's schedule with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's NCAA women's lacrosse predictions?
On 2,629 games from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 77% of the time. Its log loss was 0.455, against 0.691 for the base rate and 0.586 for recent form.
How are the NCAA women's lacrosse predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.