How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 8775 | 0.505 | 75% |
| Base rate | 8775 | 0.682 | 58% |
| Recent form | 8775 | 0.584 | 69% |
The margin of victory is sets (3–0 counts for more than 3–2); points within sets are not in the file.
The title odds use an approximate 64-team tournament of conference leaders and the best of the rest, seeded by simulated wins and rating, on neutral courts. The real bracket gives the top 16 seeds home matches in the first two rounds.
Volleyball is indoors, so there is no weather.
The season runs from late August to mid-December; outside it the pages show how the last one finished.