Football · 2026–27 season
Süper Lig forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the title odds. Favourite right now: Galatasaray, 76%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Away | Draw | Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Nov 2026 | Gaziantep FK at Genclerbirligi | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | Samsunspor at Galatasaray | 7% | 12% | 81% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | Caykur Rizespor at Amed SFK | 21% | 26% | 52% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | Fenerbahce at Kocaelispor | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Goztepe at Erzurum BB | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Besiktas at Konyaspor | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Alanyaspor at Kasimpasa | 20% | 26% | 54% |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Eyupspor at Trabzonspor | 6% | 12% | 82% |
| 23 Nov 2026 | Çorum FK at Istanbul Basaksehir | 19% | 25% | 55% |
| 27 Nov 2026 | Kasimpasa at Caykur Rizespor | 31% | 29% | 39% |
| 27 Nov 2026 | Konyaspor at Alanyaspor | 27% | 28% | 44% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Genclerbirligi at Samsunspor | 25% | 28% | 48% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Amed SFK at Gaziantep FK | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Kocaelispor at Çorum FK | 24% | 27% | 48% |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Istanbul Basaksehir at Eyupspor | 57% | 24% | 18% |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Erzurum BB at Fenerbahce | 7% | 13% | 80% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | Genclerbirligi at Besiktas | 0–3 | 69% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Trabzonspor at Alanyaspor | 2–0 | 54% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Fenerbahce at Çorum FK | 5–0 | 50% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Erzurum BB at Caykur Rizespor | 1–2 | 51% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Istanbul Basaksehir at Goztepe | 2–1 | 30% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Amed SFK at Galatasaray | 3–4 | 72% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Konyaspor at Samsunspor | 0–1 | 43% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Kocaelispor at Eyupspor | 2–0 | 39% |
| 6 Nov 2026 | Kasimpasa at Gaziantep FK | 2–0 | 40% |
Chance of winning the title
| Team | Win title | Top two | Top four | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 76% | 93% | 99% | 0% |
| Trabzonspor | 14% | 53% | 91% | 0% |
| Fenerbahce | 7% | 34% | 82% | 0% |
| Besiktas | 3% | 14% | 62% | 0% |
| Amed SFK | <1% | 3% | 26% | <1% |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | <1% | 2% | 19% | <1% |
| Kasimpasa | <1% | 1% | 10% | <1% |
| Çorum FK | <1% | <1% | 3% | 1% |
| Goztepe | 0% | <1% | 5% | 1% |
| Kocaelispor | 0% | <1% | 3% | 1% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 Süper Lig title?
Galatasaray, at 76%, ahead of Trabzonspor (14%), Fenerbahce (7%) and Besiktas (3%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
What are the odds for the next Süper Lig games?
According to PodiumOracle's model: Gaziantep FK at Genclerbirligi (21 November 2026): Genclerbirligi 49%, a draw 27%; Samsunspor at Galatasaray (21 November 2026): Galatasaray 81%, a draw 12%; Caykur Rizespor at Amed SFK (21 November 2026): Amed SFK 52%, a draw 26%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's Süper Lig predictions?
On 747 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 53% of the time. Its log loss was 0.969, against 1.063 for the base rate and 1.009 for recent form, and 0.937 for the closing betting odds. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 1.014 against the bookmakers' 0.964 over 104 games, 0.986 against Polymarket's 0.949 over 321 games and 0.994 against Kalshi's 0.952 over 314 games (lower is better).
How are the Süper Lig predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Süper Lig title odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.