15 Nov 2026 · Madison Square Garden
Charles Radtke vs Stephen Thompson
We have Stephen Thompson at 42.5% and Charles Radtke at 57.5%.
Ratings going in: Thompson 1510, Radtke 1563.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Thompson | Radtke |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| Polymarket | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| Kalshi | 58.0% | 42.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this fight: Charles Radtke W, Stephen Thompson no games yet.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Charles Radtke vs Stephen Thompson?
PodiumOracle's model makes Charles Radtke the favourite at 58%, with Stephen Thompson at 42%. The markets give Charles Radtke 41% on Polymarket, 41% on Kalshi and 42% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 58% favourite still loses 42% of the time.
When and where is Charles Radtke vs Stephen Thompson?
15 November 2026, at Madison Square Garden. The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.