Mixed martial arts · 2026 season
UFC forecasts
Win probabilities for every fight from a rating model fit only on past results.
Upcoming
Recent results
| Date | Fight | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | Virna Jandiroba vs Tatiana Suarez | 0–1 | 54% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Lucas Fernando vs Billy Elekana | 1–0 | 37% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Nina Milošević vs Priscila Cachoeira | 1–0 | 67% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Elijah Smith vs Davey Grant | 1–0 | 54% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Marcos Degli vs Mitch Raposo | 0–1 | 46% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Johnny Walker | 0–1 | 43% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Ollie Schmid vs Keiichiro Nakamura | 1–0 | 40% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Gabriella Fernandes vs Karine Silva | 0–1 | 56% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Seokhyeon Ko vs Wellington Turman | 1–0 | 69% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | José Souza vs Jonny Parsons | 1–0 | 41% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Murtazali Magomedov vs Jose Delano | 1–0 | 52% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Mantas Kondratavičius vs Andre Petroski | 0–1 | 38% |
Questions and answers
What are the odds for the next UFC fights?
According to PodiumOracle's model: Bia Mesquita vs Macy Chiasson (14 November 2026): Bia Mesquita 66%; Melquizael Costa vs Jared Gordon (14 November 2026): Melquizael Costa 68%; Samuel Sanches vs Evan Elder (14 November 2026): Evan Elder 51%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's UFC predictions?
On 1,663 games from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 60% of the time. Its log loss was 0.668, against 0.693 for the base rate and 0.674 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.666 against the bookmakers' 0.596 over 508 games, 0.688 against Polymarket's 0.630 over 106 games and 0.665 against Kalshi's 0.592 over 667 games (lower is better).
How are the UFC predictions made?
Every fighter has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.