14 Nov 2026 · Madison Square Garden
Bia Mesquita vs Macy Chiasson
We have Macy Chiasson at 34.4% and Bia Mesquita at 65.6%.
Ratings going in: Chiasson 1493, Mesquita 1605.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Chiasson | Mesquita |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 30.5% | 69.5% |
| Polymarket | 29.5% | 70.5% |
| Kalshi | 31.0% | 69.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this fight: Bia Mesquita WW, Macy Chiasson L.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Bia Mesquita vs Macy Chiasson?
PodiumOracle's model makes Bia Mesquita the favourite at 66%, with Macy Chiasson at 34%. The markets give Bia Mesquita 71% on Polymarket, 71% on Kalshi and 69% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 66% favourite still loses 34% of the time.
When and where is Bia Mesquita vs Macy Chiasson?
14 November 2026, at Madison Square Garden. The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.