15 Nov 2026 · Madison Square Garden
Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida
We have Cesar Almeida at 33.9% and Donte Johnson at 66.1%.
Ratings going in: Almeida 1508, Johnson 1624.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Almeida | Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 33.9% | 66.1% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 39.2% | 60.8% |
| Polymarket | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Kalshi | 40.0% | 60.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this fight: Donte Johnson WW, Cesar Almeida L.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida?
PodiumOracle's model makes Donte Johnson the favourite at 66%, with Cesar Almeida at 34%. The markets give Donte Johnson 61% on Polymarket, 61% on Kalshi and 61% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 66% favourite still loses 34% of the time.
When and where is Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida?
15 November 2026, at Madison Square Garden. The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.