14 Nov 2026 · Madison Square Garden
Melquizael Costa vs Jared Gordon
We have Jared Gordon at 31.5% and Melquizael Costa at 68.5%.
Ratings going in: Gordon 1509, Costa 1643.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Gordon | Costa |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 31.5% | 68.5% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 24.3% | 75.7% |
| Polymarket | 22.5% | 77.5% |
| Kalshi | 25.0% | 75.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this fight: Melquizael Costa WL, Jared Gordon L.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Melquizael Costa vs Jared Gordon?
PodiumOracle's model makes Melquizael Costa the favourite at 68%, with Jared Gordon at 32%. The markets give Melquizael Costa 78% on Polymarket, 77% on Kalshi and 76% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 68% favourite still loses 32% of the time.
When and where is Melquizael Costa vs Jared Gordon?
14 November 2026, at Madison Square Garden. The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.