14 Nov 2026 · Madison Square Garden
Samuel Sanches vs Evan Elder
We have Evan Elder at 51.4% and Samuel Sanches at 48.6%.
Ratings going in: Elder 1542, Sanches 1532.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Elder | Sanches |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 48.1% | 51.8% |
| Polymarket | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Kalshi | 48.0% | 52.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this fight: Samuel Sanches no games yet, Evan Elder no games yet.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Samuel Sanches vs Evan Elder?
PodiumOracle's model makes Evan Elder the favourite at 51%, with Samuel Sanches at 49%. The markets give Evan Elder 48% on Polymarket, 48% on Kalshi and 48% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 51% favourite still loses 49% of the time.
When and where is Samuel Sanches vs Evan Elder?
14 November 2026, at Madison Square Garden. The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.