14 Nov 2026 · Madison Square Garden
Juan Diaz vs Alatengheili
We have Alatengheili at 49.0% and Juan Diaz at 51.0%.
Ratings going in: Alatengheili 1570, Diaz 1577.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Alatengheili | Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| Bookmakers (2 books) | 25.7% | 74.3% |
| Kalshi | 21.0% | 79.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this fight: Juan Diaz W, Alatengheili W.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Juan Diaz vs Alatengheili?
PodiumOracle's model makes Juan Diaz the favourite at 51%, with Alatengheili at 49%. The markets give Juan Diaz 79% on Polymarket, 78% on Kalshi and 74% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 51% favourite still loses 49% of the time.
When and where is Juan Diaz vs Alatengheili?
14 November 2026, at Madison Square Garden. The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.