How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Match racing is two boats at a time, but the events are round robins and knockouts. The model rates each skipper on their final placing at every open event (a Plackett–Luce model of the finishing order), so a stage's odds are the chance of winning the whole event.
Tour stages, the USA Grand Slam, national championships and club internationals all count, since the same skippers meet across them; youth, women's and school events are left out.
A skipper's crew changes from event to event and isn't in the model.
Boats differ by venue (the host club supplies them); the model doesn't know one-design classes apart.
The Tour's season points and World Championship standings aren't simulated yet.