Cricket · Road to 2027 season
ICC World Test Championship forecasts
Win probabilities for every match from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the World Test Championship odds. Favourite right now: South Africa, 43%.
Live and upcoming
| Date | Match | First named | Second named | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov 2026 | Sri Lanka vs Pakistan | 48% | 17% | 36% |
| 13 Nov 2026 | Zimbabwe vs Afghanistan | 27% | 16% | 57% |
| 15 Nov 2026 | Bangladesh vs South Africa | 15% | 11% | 75% |
| 17 Nov 2026 | Sri Lanka vs Pakistan | 48% | 17% | 36% |
| 18 Nov 2026 | India vs New Zealand | 43% | 17% | 40% |
| 23 Nov 2026 | Bangladesh vs South Africa | 15% | 11% | 75% |
| 26 Nov 2026 | India vs New Zealand | 43% | 17% | 40% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2026 | Zimbabwe vs Afghanistan | Draw | 15% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | West Indies vs Bangladesh | Draw | 17% |
Chance of winning the World Test Championship
| Nation | Reach the final | Win the championship |
|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 88% | 43% |
| Australia | 71% | 40% |
| New Zealand | 33% | 14% |
| India | 6% | 3% |
| England | 1% | 1% |
| Sri Lanka | 1% | <1% |
| Bangladesh | <1% | <1% |
| West Indies | 0% | 0% |
| Pakistan | 0% | 0% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the Road to 2027 World Test Championship?
South Africa, at 43%, ahead of Australia (40%), New Zealand (14%) and India (3%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
What are the odds for the next ICC World Test Championship matches?
According to PodiumOracle's model: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan (9 November 2026): Sri Lanka 48%, a draw 17%; Zimbabwe vs Afghanistan (13 November 2026): Afghanistan 57%, a draw 16%; Bangladesh vs South Africa (15 November 2026): South Africa 75%, a draw 11%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's ICC World Test Championship predictions?
On 215 games from held-back seasons (Road to 2023 to Road to 2027), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 58% of the time. Its log loss was 0.908, against 0.981 for the base rate and 0.972 for recent form.
How are the ICC World Test Championship predictions made?
Every nation has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the World Test Championship odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.