How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 2476 | 0.683 | 57% |
| Base rate | 2476 | 0.694 | 51% |
| Recent form | 2476 | 0.691 | 53% |
The AHL is the NHL's top development league: rosters change all season as players are called up and sent down, which makes it noisier to forecast than the NHL. The model keeps more of each rating's change from game to game for that reason.
The playoff odds follow the league's format: five, six or seven teams from each division (by its size), a best-of-three first round for the lower seeds, best-of-five division semi-finals and finals, then best-of-seven conference finals and Calder Cup Finals.
NHL call-ups and assignments are not in the model; a team that loses its best players to its parent club mid-season is only caught as its results change.
Goaltending is not in the rating.