Ice hockey · 2026–27 season
AHL forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the Calder Cup odds. Favourite right now: Grand Rapids Griffins, 13%.
Live and upcoming
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2026 | Manitoba Moose at Texas Stars | 1–2 | 49% |
| 12 Nov 2026 | Colorado Eagles at Abbotsford Canucks | 3–4 | 51% |
| 12 Nov 2026 | Providence Bruins at Charlotte Checkers | 4–2 | 45% |
| 12 Nov 2026 | Hamilton Hammers at Hershey Bears | 4–1 | 42% |
| 12 Nov 2026 | Laval Rocket at Syracuse Crunch | 5–0 | 50% |
| 11 Nov 2026 | Belleville Senators at Utica Comets | 0–1 | 59% |
| 11 Nov 2026 | Rockford IceHogs at Grand Rapids Griffins | 3–6 | 65% |
| 11 Nov 2026 | Calgary Wranglers at Bakersfield Condors | 4–2 | 43% |
| 11 Nov 2026 | Colorado Eagles at Abbotsford Canucks | 4–3 | 48% |
| 11 Nov 2026 | Manitoba Moose at Texas Stars | 3–2 | 50% |
| 11 Nov 2026 | Providence Bruins at Charlotte Checkers | 2–4 | 54% |
| 10 Nov 2026 | Utica Comets at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 4–0 | 43% |
Chance of winning the Calder Cup
| Team | Make playoffs | Division semi-final | Division final | Conference final | Calder Cup Finals | Win Calder Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Rapids Griffins | 99% | 97% | 63% | 39% | 23% | 13% |
| Laval Rocket | 98% | 85% | 51% | 28% | 17% | 9% |
| Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 93% | 85% | 48% | 25% | 13% | 7% |
| Providence Bruins | 86% | 74% | 40% | 22% | 11% | 6% |
| Utica Comets | 97% | 79% | 43% | 22% | 11% | 6% |
| Charlotte Checkers | 92% | 80% | 43% | 22% | 11% | 6% |
| Tucson Roadrunners | 94% | 65% | 36% | 19% | 10% | 5% |
| Colorado Eagles | 83% | 51% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4% |
| Henderson Silver Knights | 89% | 57% | 31% | 16% | 8% | 4% |
| Manitoba Moose | 95% | 84% | 42% | 20% | 9% | 4% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 Calder Cup?
Grand Rapids Griffins, at 13%, ahead of Laval Rocket (9%), Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins (7%) and Providence Bruins (6%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
What are the odds for the next AHL games?
According to PodiumOracle's model: San Jose Barracuda at San Diego Gulls (12 November 2026): San Diego Gulls 55%; San Jose Barracuda at Coachella Valley Firebirds (13 November 2026): Coachella Valley Firebirds 56%; Calgary Wranglers at Henderson Silver Knights (13 November 2026): Henderson Silver Knights 60%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's AHL predictions?
On 2,701 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 56% of the time. Its log loss was 0.684, against 0.694 for the base rate and 0.691 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.692 against the bookmakers' 0.690 over 764 games, 0.689 against Polymarket's 0.687 over 1,133 games and 0.690 against Kalshi's 0.689 over 867 games (lower is better).
How are the AHL predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Calder Cup odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.