America's Cup
America's Cup ratings and forecasts.
Who wins the Louis Vuitton Cup?
Emirates Team New Zealand race the opening stages, but their results don't count.
| Challenger | Reach the semi-finals | Reach the final | Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luna Rossa | 98% | 88% | 71% |
| La Roche-Posay (Orient Express) | 76% | 37% | 11% |
| American Racing Challenger Team USA | 65% | 24% | 6% |
| Team Australia | 60% | 20% | 5% |
| Tudor Team Alinghi | 61% | 21% | 5% |
| GB1 (INEOS Britannia) | 40% | 10% | 2% |
Who wins the America's Cup?
| Team | Win the Louis Vuitton Cup | Win the America's Cup |
|---|---|---|
| Emirates Team New Zealand (defender) | – | 42% |
| Luna Rossa | 71% | 51% |
| La Roche-Posay (Orient Express) | 11% | 3% |
| American Racing Challenger Team USA | 6% | 1% |
| Team Australia | 5% | 1% |
| Tudor Team Alinghi | 5% | 1% |
| GB1 (INEOS Britannia) | 2% | <1% |
Calendar
- Cagliari Preliminary Regatta 21 May 2026 to 24 May 2026, won by Luna Rossa
- Naples Preliminary Regatta 25 Sep 2026 to 27 Sep 2026, won by Luna Rossa
- Louis Vuitton Cup 22 May 2027 to 4 Jul 2027, to come
- Youth America's Cup 2 Jun 2027 to 6 Jun 2027, to come
- Women's America's Cup 5 Jul 2027 to 9 Jul 2027, to come
- 38th America's Cup Match 10 Jul 2027 to 19 Jul 2027, to come
Questions and answers
How accurate are PodiumOracle's America's Cup predictions?
On 143 races from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, its favourite won 59% of the time in fields of about 4, and it gave the eventual winner 46% on average. Its log loss was 1.085, against 1.147 for treating every team as equal and 1.091 for recent form.