How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Match races (two boats) and fleet races (six to nine AC40s) go into one Plackett–Luce model, so a win in a match race and a place in a fleet race both move a team's rating.
A team's rating is its sailing programme plus a boat term for the season. Programmes carry across cycles where the sailing team did: INEOS Britannia's sailors are GB1, Orient Express is La Roche-Posay, Alinghi Red Bull is Tudor Team Alinghi. The Women & Youth teams are rated on their club's Youth and Women's America's Cup crews.
The 2007 to 2017 cycles (ACC yachts, the 2010 multihulls, AC72s and AC50s) are in the fit too, counting less the older they are. Land Rover BAR is Ben Ainslie's team (GB1 today) and Areva Challenge is K-Challenge (La Roche-Posay today); Oracle Team USA, Artemis, SoftBank Team Japan and the 2007 challengers are rated as their own teams. Each season has its own boat term, so a new class starts every team's boat afresh while the sailing programme carries over. With them the model scores better on the held-back 2024 and 2026 races than on the official feeds alone.
The regatta odds sail every fleet race left with the real points (10 for a win, down one a place), then the top two sail a final race for the win.
The 38th America's Cup Match and its challenger series (Naples, 2027) aren't in the results feed yet; they get a forecast when their dates and entries are published.
The Women & Youth crews race AC40s alongside the principal teams in the preliminary regattas; they are rated as their own teams.
AC75 design (the boat term) and the one-design AC40 regattas share a season's boat term, a simplification: the AC40 boats are identical.
Not included: the AC45 World Series fleet races (2011-2016), whose results survive only as images and standings; the 2000 and 2003 challenger series, published as standings only; and practice races, for which no full finishing orders are published.