Football · 2023 (played 2024) season
AFC Asian Cup forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results.
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb 2024 | Jordan at Qatar | 1–3 | 41% |
| 7 Feb 2024 | Iran at Qatar | 2–3 | 18% |
| 6 Feb 2024 | South Korea vs Jordan | 0–2 | 17% |
| 3 Feb 2024 | Japan vs Iran | 1–2 | 25% |
| 3 Feb 2024 | Uzbekistan at Qatar | 1–1 | 32% |
| 2 Feb 2024 | South Korea vs Australia | 2–1 | 28% |
| 2 Feb 2024 | Jordan vs Tajikistan | 1–0 | 54% |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Japan vs Bahrain | 3–1 | 82% |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Syria vs Iran | 1–1 | 14% |
| 30 Jan 2024 | South Korea vs Saudi Arabia | 1–1 | 28% |
| 30 Jan 2024 | Thailand vs Uzbekistan | 1–2 | 62% |
| 29 Jan 2024 | Jordan vs Iraq | 3–2 | 20% |
Questions and answers
How accurate are PodiumOracle's AFC Asian Cup predictions?
On 102 games from held-back seasons (2019 to 2023 (played 2024)), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 63% of the time. Its log loss was 0.841, against 1.067 for the base rate and 1.020 for recent form.
How are the AFC Asian Cup predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.