How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 51 | 0.886 | 57% |
| Base rate | 51 | 1.139 | 47% |
| Recent form | 51 | 1.053 | 51% |
The nations are rated on every international they play, not just Asian Cup matches — the same ratings, and the same fitted settings, as the World Cup page. Only Asian Cup matches are scored here.
The tournament is simulated 10,000 times: group games from the fixture list, the four best third-placed sides by points, goal difference and goals, the round of 16 drawn up the way the competition's rules place the thirds, and knockouts on neutral ground (Saudi Arabia, the hosts, at home).
A knockout draw goes to a coin flip for extra time and penalties.
The model's settings were fit on all internationals from 2016 to 2023, which include the 2019 tournament, so only the 2023 edition (played in 2024) counts as a true holdout.
Where more than one placement of the third-placed sides fits the rules, the simulation uses the first; the competition's own table might differ in a few combinations.