Canadian football · 2026 season
CFL forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the Grey Cup odds. Favourite right now: Montreal Alouettes, 56%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Away | Home |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Nov 2026 | Montreal Alouettes vs Edmonton Elks | 56% | 44% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2026 | BC Lions at Edmonton Elks | 16–28 | 61% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Montreal Alouettes | 23–33 | 68% |
Chance of winning the Grey Cup
| Team | Make playoffs | Win division | Grey Cup | Win Grey Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Alouettes | 100% | 100% | 100% | 56% |
| Edmonton Elks | 100% | 100% | 100% | 44% |
| BC Lions | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2026 Grey Cup?
Montreal Alouettes, at 56%, ahead of Edmonton Elks (44%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
What are the odds for the next CFL games?
According to PodiumOracle's model: Montreal Alouettes vs Edmonton Elks (15 November 2026): Montreal Alouettes 56%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's CFL predictions?
On 257 games from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 58% of the time. Its log loss was 0.660, against 0.681 for the base rate and 0.680 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.609 against the bookmakers' 0.573 over 83 games, 0.613 against Polymarket's 0.576 over 81 games and 0.594 against Kalshi's 0.575 over 80 games (lower is better).
How are the CFL predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Grey Cup odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.