How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 233 | 0.665 | 57% |
| Base rate | 233 | 0.682 | 58% |
| Recent form | 233 | 0.681 | 58% |
The playoffs are simulated the league's way: three teams from each division, the crossover when a fourth-placed team has more points than the other division's third, division semi-finals and finals at the higher seed, and the Grey Cup on neutral ground.
CFL.ca's pages go back to 2016 (there was no 2020 season), and they list older playoff games without scores, so those few games are left out of the ratings.
Live scores come from CFL.ca's scoreboard; the in-game chance moves with the score and the clock, not with field position.
Quarterbacks and injuries are not in the model.