How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Against the betting markets
Each market's price before the start, scored on the same finished games as the model. A negative figure means the market was more accurate.
| Market | Since | Priced | Model log loss | Market log loss | Model vs market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 16 Apr 2026 | 19 | 3.094 | 3.517 | 12.0% |
This is strokes gained against the field from round scores, not shot-level Strokes Gained from ShotLink: it knows how many strokes a player took, not where they came from.
Most events are three rounds with no cut, which is how they are simulated; the majors' four rounds are not.
Withdrawals during an event count as missing the rounds they didn't play.
Course fit (a long hitter's course, a putter's course) is not in the model.
Questions and answers
How accurate are PodiumOracle's PGA Tour Champions predictions?
On 81 tournaments from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, its favourite won 11% of the time in fields of about 82, and it gave the eventual winner 6% on average. Its log loss was 3.404, against 4.364 for treating every player as equal and 3.595 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished events, its log loss was 3.094 against Kalshi's 3.517 over 19 tournaments (lower is better).