PodiumOracle Conference League

Football · 2026–27 season

Conference League forecasts

Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the Conference League odds. Favourite right now: Brighton & Hove Albion, 35%.

Upcoming

DateGameAwayDrawHome
26 Nov 2026Mjällby AIF at Kairat Almaty49%18%33%
26 Nov 2026Riga FC at Kauno Zalgiris38%18%43%
26 Nov 2026AGF at SK Brann23%16%62%
26 Nov 2026FC Midtjylland at Pafos43%18%39%
26 Nov 2026Lincoln Red Imps at Egnatia19%14%67%
26 Nov 2026AS Monaco at Heart of Midlothian75%11%14%
26 Nov 2026FC Lugano at Jablonec58%16%26%
26 Nov 2026Getafe at Iberia 199944%18%37%
26 Nov 2026CSU Craiova at Brighton & Hove Albion4%4%92%
26 Nov 2026FC Thun at Ajax Amsterdam6%6%87%
26 Nov 2026F.C. København at Inter D'Escaldes60%16%24%
26 Nov 2026FC Twente at SC Freiburg28%17%55%
26 Nov 2026KuPS Kuopio at Braga16%13%71%
26 Nov 2026Trabzonspor at CSKA Sofia74%12%14%
26 Nov 2026Red Star Belgrade at KAA Gent25%16%59%
26 Nov 2026Sint-Truidense at Hajduk Split37%18%44%

Recent results

All results

DateGameScorePre-game chance of the winner
5 Nov 2026Iberia 1999 at F.C. København1–270%
5 Nov 2026Egnatia at CSU Craiova0–245%
5 Nov 2026Jablonec at Riga FC1–118%
5 Nov 2026CSKA Sofia at Panathinaikos1–287%
5 Nov 2026SK Brann at Sint-Truidense1–118%
5 Nov 2026Brighton & Hove Albion at Getafe1–077%
5 Nov 2026Pafos at FC Twente1–370%
5 Nov 2026Kauno Zalgiris at FC Lugano0–387%
5 Nov 2026FC Nordsjælland at AS Monaco0–277%
5 Nov 2026Borac Banja Luka at Mjällby AIF0–249%
5 Nov 2026Hajduk Split at Lincoln Red Imps0–125%
5 Nov 2026SC Freiburg at Trabzonspor1–030%

Chance of winning the Conference League

Every team

TeamTop eightReach knockoutsRound of 16Quarter-finalsSemi-finalsFinalWin
Brighton & Hove Albion82%100%98%81%64%48%35%
AS Monaco91%100%98%69%42%23%11%
Ajax Amsterdam76%>99%95%64%38%20%10%
Panathinaikos64%100%92%61%36%19%9%
SC Freiburg36%99%85%54%31%16%8%
FC Twente89%100%97%63%34%16%7%
Trabzonspor65%>99%91%59%31%15%7%
FC Lugano86%100%96%59%31%13%5%
F.C. København49%>99%79%37%14%5%2%
Atalanta15%93%63%27%11%4%1%

Questions and answers

Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 Conference League?

Brighton & Hove Albion, at 35%, ahead of AS Monaco (11%), Ajax Amsterdam (10%) and Panathinaikos (9%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.

What are the odds for the next Conference League games?

According to PodiumOracle's model: Mjällby AIF at Kairat Almaty (26 November 2026): Mjällby AIF 49%, a draw 18%; Riga FC at Kauno Zalgiris (26 November 2026): Kauno Zalgiris 43%, a draw 18%; AGF at SK Brann (26 November 2026): SK Brann 62%, a draw 16%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.

How accurate are PodiumOracle's Conference League predictions?

On 360 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 54% of the time. Its log loss was 0.974, against 1.031 for the base rate and 1.010 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.961 against the bookmakers' 0.893 over 83 games, 0.965 against Polymarket's 0.893 over 157 games and 0.987 against Kalshi's 0.920 over 160 games (lower is better).

How are the Conference League predictions made?

Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Conference League odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.