How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 306 | 0.973 | 53% |
| Base rate | 306 | 1.021 | 51% |
| Recent form | 306 | 1.011 | 50% |
Clubs are rated on their domestic league games as well as all three UEFA competitions, so a Norwegian champion and a mid-table Premier League side sit on one scale, linked by European meetings. Only Conference League matches are scored in the track record.
Knockout ties are two legs; the simulation plays each as one game on neutral ground.
Clubs from leagues football-data.co.uk doesn't carry (Czechia, Croatia, Serbia, Ukraine, Israel, Cyprus and others) are rated only on their European matches.
The Conference League has only a few seasons, so it uses the settings fitted for the Europa League, which rates the same clubs on the same scale.