How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 2283 | 0.669 | 59% |
| Base rate | 2283 | 0.693 | 52% |
| Recent form | 2283 | 0.683 | 56% |
The ECHL sits below the AHL: players move up and down between the two all season, so rosters are less settled than in the NHL.
The playoff odds follow the league's format: the top four in each division, 1 v 4 and 2 v 3, best of seven throughout, division winners meet in the conference final, then the Kelly Cup Finals.
Call-ups to the AHL and NHL are not in the model until they show up in results.
Goaltending is not in the rating.