How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 396 | 0.975 | 55% |
| Base rate | 396 | 1.020 | 51% |
| Recent form | 396 | 1.001 | 51% |
Clubs are rated on their domestic league games as well as all three UEFA competitions, so a Norwegian champion and a mid-table Premier League side sit on one scale, linked by European meetings. Only Europa League matches are scored in the track record.
Knockout ties are two legs; the simulation plays each as one game on neutral ground.
Clubs from leagues football-data.co.uk doesn't carry (Czechia, Croatia, Serbia, Ukraine, Israel, Cyprus and others) are rated only on their European matches.
Countries are linked only through the UEFA competitions, and ESPN's feeds leave out the qualifying rounds.