PodiumOracle Europa League

Football · 2026–27 season

Europa League forecasts

Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the Europa League odds. Favourite right now: AFC Bournemouth, 26%.

Upcoming

DateGameAwayDrawHome
26 Nov 2026Hapoel Be'er at Besiktas16%12%72%
26 Nov 2026Levski Sofia at Marseille9%8%83%
26 Nov 2026Lech Poznan at Union St.-Gilloise14%12%74%
26 Nov 2026Bayer Leverkusen at Dinamo Zagreb54%17%29%
26 Nov 2026Benfica at Viktoria Plzen66%14%20%
26 Nov 2026AFC Bournemouth at Celta Vigo72%13%16%
26 Nov 2026Ararat-Armenia at RB Salzburg9%8%82%
26 Nov 2026AC Milan at Olympiacos34%18%48%
26 Nov 2026Lillestrom at Lyon9%9%82%
26 Nov 2026Omonia Nicosia at Juventus8%7%85%
26 Nov 2026Anderlecht at OFI Crete43%18%39%
26 Nov 2026Real Sociedad at Crystal Palace42%18%40%
26 Nov 2026Stade Rennais at NEC Nijmegen55%17%28%
26 Nov 2026Celtic at Torreense49%18%33%
26 Nov 2026Jagiellonia Bialystok at Sunderland15%12%72%
26 Nov 2026AZ Alkmaar at Sparta Prague59%16%24%

Recent results

All results

DateGameScorePre-game chance of the winner
5 Nov 2026Besiktas at Celtic2–333%
5 Nov 2026Dinamo Zagreb at Sunderland2–020%
5 Nov 2026NK Celje at SK Sturm Graz3–223%
5 Nov 2026Lech Poznan at Benfica1–373%
5 Nov 2026Juventus at AZ Alkmaar2–158%
5 Nov 2026Ararat-Armenia at Torreense2–357%
5 Nov 2026Union St.-Gilloise at Celta Vigo2–159%
5 Nov 2026OFI Crete at Hapoel Be'er2–033%
5 Nov 2026Marseille at Bayer Leverkusen1–022%
5 Nov 2026TSG Hoffenheim at Crystal Palace1–118%
5 Nov 2026Viktoria Plzen at Lillestrom1–053%
5 Nov 2026AFC Bournemouth at Sparta Prague3–188%

Chance of winning the Europa League

Every team

TeamTop eightReach knockoutsRound of 16Quarter-finalsSemi-finalsFinalWin
AFC Bournemouth>99%100%>99%78%58%40%26%
Benfica99%100%>99%73%50%32%18%
Union St.-Gilloise90%100%98%69%44%25%14%
Juventus87%100%96%61%32%15%7%
Bayer Leverkusen67%>99%89%53%26%12%6%
Olympiacos79%>99%92%54%25%11%5%
Ferencvaros89%100%96%55%26%11%4%
Lyon32%98%74%37%17%7%3%
AC Milan3%86%58%28%14%7%3%
Stade Rennais40%98%76%38%16%6%3%

Questions and answers

Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 Europa League?

AFC Bournemouth, at 26%, ahead of Benfica (18%), Union St.-Gilloise (14%) and Juventus (7%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.

What are the odds for the next Europa League games?

According to PodiumOracle's model: Hapoel Be'er at Besiktas (26 November 2026): Besiktas 72%, a draw 12%; Levski Sofia at Marseille (26 November 2026): Marseille 83%, a draw 8%; Lech Poznan at Union St.-Gilloise (26 November 2026): Union St.-Gilloise 74%, a draw 12%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.

How accurate are PodiumOracle's Europa League predictions?

On 450 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 55% of the time. Its log loss was 0.972, against 1.027 for the base rate and 1.011 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.882 against the bookmakers' 0.889 over 115 games, 0.946 against Polymarket's 0.939 over 250 games and 0.903 against Kalshi's 0.898 over 193 games (lower is better).

How are the Europa League predictions made?

Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Europa League odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.