Round 13 · 28 Nov 2026 · Lusail
Lusail sprint race
Each driver's chance from 20,000 simulations of the race, using ratings fit only on earlier results. The entry list isn't out yet, so the field is the last race's. In the championship, Rafael Câmara is 60% to win the title.
The field
| Driver | Win | Podium |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Câmara | 25% | 61% |
| Alexander Dunne | 17% | 48% |
| Nikola Tsolov | 11% | 34% |
| Gabriele Mini | 5% | 18% |
| Noel Leon | 5% | 17% |
| Dino Beganovic | 5% | 16% |
| Martinius Stenshorne | 4% | 13% |
| Tasanapol Inthraphuvasak | 4% | 13% |
| Joshua Dürksen | 4% | 13% |
| Laurens van Hoepen | 3% | 11% |
| Kush Maini | 3% | 9% |
| Oliver Goethe | 2% | 7% |
| Ritomo Miyata | 2% | 7% |
| Sebastian Montoya | 2% | 6% |
| Hiyu Yamakoshi | 2% | 6% |
| Emerson Fittipaldi | 1% | 4% |
| Rafael Villagomez | 1% | 3% |
| Roman Bilinski | 1% | 3% |
| John Bennett | 1% | 3% |
| Colton Herta | 1% | 3% |
| Mari Boya | 1% | 2% |
| Cian Shields | 1% | 2% |
Chance of winning the Formula 2 Championship
| Driver | Points | Projected | Title chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Câmara | 207 | 231 | 60% |
| Nikola Tsolov | 200 | 220 | 25% |
| Alexander Dunne | 189 | 212 | 14% |
| Gabriele Mini | 163 | 179 | <1% |
| Dino Beganovic | 137 | 152 | <1% |
| Noel Leon | 133 | 149 | 0% |
| Martinius Stenshorne | 107 | 121 | 0% |
| Joshua Dürksen | 90 | 104 | 0% |
| Laurens van Hoepen | 90 | 104 | 0% |
| Kush Maini | 90 | 102 | 0% |
Calendar
- Melbourne sprint race 7 Mar 2026, won by Joshua Dürksen
- Melbourne feature race 8 Mar 2026, won by Nikola Tsolov
- Miami Gardens sprint race 2 May 2026, won by Nikola Tsolov
- Miami Gardens feature race 3 May 2026, won by Gabriele Mini
- Montréal sprint race 23 May 2026, won by Noel Leon
- Montréal feature race 24 May 2026, won by Martinius Stenshorne
- Monte Carlo sprint race 6 Jun 2026, won by Noel Leon
- Monte Carlo feature race 7 Jun 2026, won by Nikola Tsolov
- Barcelona sprint race 13 Jun 2026, won by Kush Maini
- Barcelona feature race 14 Jun 2026, won by Rafael Câmara
- Spielberg sprint race 27 Jun 2026, won by John Bennett
- Spielberg feature race 28 Jun 2026, won by Nikola Tsolov
- Silverstone sprint race 4 Jul 2026, won by Nikola Tsolov
- Silverstone feature race 5 Jul 2026, won by Nikola Tsolov
- Spa-Francorchamps sprint race 18 Jul 2026, won by Joshua Dürksen
- Spa-Francorchamps feature race 19 Jul 2026, won by Rafael Câmara
- Budapest sprint race 25 Jul 2026, won by Gabriele Mini
- Budapest feature race 26 Jul 2026, won by Noel Leon
- Monza sprint race 5 Sep 2026, won by Joshua Dürksen
- Monza feature race 6 Sep 2026, won by Joshua Dürksen
- Madrid sprint race 12 Sep 2026, won by Ritomo Miyata
- Madrid feature race 13 Sep 2026, won by Dino Beganovic
- Baku sprint race 25 Sep 2026, won by Dino Beganovic
- Baku feature race 1 25 Sep 2026, won by Alexander Dunne
- Baku feature race 2 26 Sep 2026, won by Rafael Câmara
- Lusail sprint race 28 Nov 2026
- Lusail feature race 29 Nov 2026
- Yas Marina sprint race 5 Dec 2026
- Yas Marina feature race 6 Dec 2026
Questions and answers
Who will win the Lusail sprint race?
Rafael Câmara is the favourite at 25%, ahead of Alexander Dunne (17%), Nikola Tsolov (11%) and Gabriele Mini (5%), from 20,000 simulations of the race with PodiumOracle's ratings, updated 12 November 2026. The entry list isn't out yet, so the field is the last race's.
Who is favoured to win the 2026 Formula 2 Championship?
Rafael Câmara, at 60%, ahead of Nikola Tsolov (25%) and Alexander Dunne (14%), from 10,000 simulations of the remaining races with the real points system, updated 12 November 2026.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's Formula 2 predictions?
On 40 races from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, its favourite won 8% of the time in fields of about 22, and it gave the eventual winner 7% on average. Its log loss was 2.836, against 3.085 for treating every driver as equal and 2.898 for recent form.