PodiumOracle Ligue 1

Football · 2026–27 season

Ligue 1 forecasts

Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the title odds. Favourite right now: Paris Saint-Germain, 82%.

Upcoming

DateGameAwayDrawHome
20 Nov 2026Le Havre AC at Troyes33%29%38%
21 Nov 2026Paris Saint-Germain at Nice59%24%17%
21 Nov 2026Brest at Strasbourg27%28%45%
21 Nov 2026AJ Auxerre at AS Monaco17%24%59%
21 Nov 2026Lyon at Lille26%28%45%
21 Nov 2026Toulouse at Lens20%26%54%
22 Nov 2026Angers at Paris FC15%22%63%
22 Nov 2026Stade Rennais at Lorient37%29%33%
22 Nov 2026Le Mans at Marseille13%20%67%
27 Nov 2026Paris FC at Brest33%29%38%
28 Nov 2026Lens at Angers56%25%19%
28 Nov 2026Lorient at Paris Saint-Germain10%17%74%
28 Nov 2026Troyes at Nice15%23%62%
28 Nov 2026Lille at Le Mans55%25%20%
28 Nov 2026Strasbourg at Le Havre AC46%28%26%
29 Nov 2026Marseille at AJ Auxerre48%28%25%

Recent results

All results

DateGameScorePre-game chance of the winner
8 Nov 2026Marseille at Lens2–127%
8 Nov 2026AS Monaco at Le Mans1–127%
8 Nov 2026Lorient at Le Havre AC2–039%
8 Nov 2026Lyon at Brest0–230%
8 Nov 2026Nice at Angers2–042%
8 Nov 2026Lille at Stade Rennais2–134%
7 Nov 2026Troyes at Paris Saint-Germain0–185%
7 Nov 2026Paris FC at AJ Auxerre1–039%
6 Nov 2026Strasbourg at Toulouse1–337%

Chance of winning the title

Every team

TeamWin titleTop fourRelegation play-offRelegated
Paris Saint-Germain82%99%0%0%
Lille8%70%0%0%
Marseille3%49%<1%<1%
Lyon2%40%<1%<1%
Paris FC2%34%<1%<1%
AS Monaco1%35%<1%<1%
Lens1%23%<1%<1%
Stade Rennais1%22%<1%<1%
Nice<1%10%1%<1%
Brest<1%7%1%1%

Questions and answers

Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 Ligue 1 title?

Paris Saint-Germain, at 82%, ahead of Lille (8%), Marseille (3%) and Lyon (2%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.

What are the odds for the next Ligue 1 games?

According to PodiumOracle's model: Le Havre AC at Troyes (20 November 2026): Troyes 38%, a draw 29%; Paris Saint-Germain at Nice (21 November 2026): Paris Saint-Germain 59%, a draw 24%; Brest at Strasbourg (21 November 2026): Strasbourg 45%, a draw 28%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.

How accurate are PodiumOracle's Ligue 1 predictions?

On 702 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 54% of the time. Its log loss was 0.981, against 1.058 for the base rate and 1.016 for recent form, and 0.964 for the closing betting odds. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.997 against the bookmakers' 0.982 over 232 games, 0.989 against Polymarket's 0.967 over 350 games and 0.986 against Kalshi's 0.965 over 389 games (lower is better).

How are the Ligue 1 predictions made?

Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Ligue 1 title odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.