How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 1142 | 0.671 | 59% |
| Base rate | 1142 | 0.688 | 55% |
| Recent form | 1142 | 0.681 | 56% |
The table is Liiga's: three points for a win in regulation, two for a win in overtime or a shootout, one for losing in one.
The playoff odds follow the current format: twelve teams, the top four waiting while the rest play best-of-five first-round series, then best-of-seven rounds re-seeded so the best team left meets the worst.
Liiga has no promotion or relegation, so the same clubs return every season.
Goaltending is not in the rating, and live scores aren't shown for Liiga yet.