Ice hockey · 2026–27 season
Liiga forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the Kanada-malja odds. Favourite right now: Lukko, 25%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Away | Home |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2026 | Jukurit at HPK | 49% | 51% |
| 13 Nov 2026 | K-Espoo at KalPa | 45% | 55% |
| 13 Nov 2026 | JYP at KooKoo | 58% | 42% |
| 13 Nov 2026 | Ilves at SaiPa | 46% | 54% |
| 13 Nov 2026 | Jokerit at TPS | 40% | 60% |
| 13 Nov 2026 | HIFK at Tappara | 36% | 64% |
| 13 Nov 2026 | Ässät at Pelicans | 46% | 54% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | KooKoo at Jukurit | 40% | 60% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Pelicans at JYP | 36% | 64% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Tappara at Kärpät | 56% | 44% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | HPK at Sport | 59% | 41% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Jokerit at Ässät | 40% | 60% |
| 15 Nov 2026 | SaiPa at Ilves | 44% | 56% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov 2026 | Ässät at Jukurit | 1–3 | 54% |
| 11 Nov 2026 | Pelicans at Ilves | 1–4 | 65% |
| 11 Nov 2026 | Kärpät at JYP | 1–7 | 63% |
| 11 Nov 2026 | Sport at K-Espoo | 5–3 | 25% |
| 11 Nov 2026 | KalPa at Lukko | 1–4 | 63% |
| 11 Nov 2026 | Jokerit at HIFK | 5–2 | 37% |
| 9 Nov 2026 | KalPa at TPS | 2–3 | 50% |
Chance of winning the Kanada-malja
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 Kanada-malja?
Lukko, at 25%, ahead of Ilves (19%), SaiPa (15%) and JYP (14%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
What are the odds for the next Liiga games?
According to PodiumOracle's model: Jukurit at HPK (13 November 2026): HPK 51%; K-Espoo at KalPa (13 November 2026): KalPa 55%; JYP at KooKoo (13 November 2026): JYP 58%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's Liiga predictions?
On 1,253 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 59% of the time. Its log loss was 0.673, against 0.687 for the base rate and 0.681 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.656 against the bookmakers' 0.646 over 384 games, 0.687 against Polymarket's 0.671 over 164 games and 0.663 against Kalshi's 0.663 over 279 games (lower is better).
How are the Liiga predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Kanada-malja odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.