Race 30 · 27 Sep 2026 · Kansas Speedway
Hollywood Casino 400
Each driver's chance from 20,000 simulations of the race, using ratings fit only on earlier results. In the championship, Denny Hamlin is 39% to win the title.
The field
| Driver | Win | Podium |
|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 11% | 33% |
| Christopher Bell | 11% | 32% |
| Kyle Larson | 10% | 29% |
| Tyler Reddick | 7% | 22% |
| Ryan Blaney | 7% | 19% |
| Chase Briscoe | 7% | 20% |
| Ty Gibbs | 6% | 19% |
| Joey Logano | 5% | 16% |
| Chase Elliott | 5% | 14% |
| William Byron | 4% | 14% |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | 3% | 9% |
| Alex Bowman | 3% | 8% |
| Carson Hocevar | 2% | 7% |
| Bubba Wallace | 2% | 7% |
| Brad Keselowski | 2% | 6% |
| Ross Chastain | 2% | 6% |
| Chris Buescher | 1% | 5% |
| Daniel Suárez | 1% | 4% |
| Michael McDowell | 1% | 4% |
| Austin Cindric | 1% | 3% |
| Josh Berry | 1% | 3% |
| Erik Jones | 1% | 3% |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 1% | 3% |
| Zane Smith | 1% | 2% |
| AJ Allmendinger | 1% | 2% |
| Ryan Preece | 1% | 2% |
| John H. Nemechek | <1% | 1% |
| Austin Dillon | <1% | 1% |
| Cole Custer | <1% | 1% |
| Connor Zilisch | <1% | 1% |
| Noah Gragson | <1% | 1% |
| Austin Hill | <1% | 1% |
| Cody Ware | <1% | 1% |
| Ty Dillon | <1% | <1% |
| Riley Herbst | <1% | <1% |
| Todd Gilliland | <1% | <1% |
Chance of winning the Cup Series championship
| Driver | Points | Projected | Title chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 2205 | 2427 | 39% |
| Kyle Larson | 2206 | 2422 | 33% |
| Christopher Bell | 2189 | 2405 | 18% |
| Joey Logano | 2190 | 2381 | 6% |
| Ty Gibbs | 2164 | 2361 | 2% |
| Tyler Reddick | 2145 | 2354 | 1% |
| Ryan Blaney | 2154 | 2344 | 1% |
| Chase Briscoe | 2119 | 2315 | <1% |
| Carson Hocevar | 2121 | 2286 | <1% |
| Chase Elliott | 2089 | 2281 | 0% |
Calendar
- DAYTONA 500 15 Feb 2026, won by Tyler Reddick
- Autotrader 400 22 Feb 2026, won by Tyler Reddick
- DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix Powered by RelaDyne 1 Mar 2026, won by Tyler Reddick
- Straight Talk Wireless 500 8 Mar 2026, won by Ryan Blaney
- Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube 15 Mar 2026, won by Denny Hamlin
- Goodyear 400 22 Mar 2026, won by Tyler Reddick
- Cook Out 400 29 Mar 2026, won by Chase Elliott
- Food City 500 12 Apr 2026, won by Ty Gibbs
- AdventHealth 400 19 Apr 2026, won by Tyler Reddick
- Jack Link's 500 26 Apr 2026, won by Carson Hocevar
- Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY 3 May 2026, won by Chase Elliott
- Go Bowling at The Glen 10 May 2026, won by Shane Van Gisbergen
- Coca-Cola 600 24 May 2026, won by Daniel Suárez
- Cracker Barrel 400 31 May 2026, won by Denny Hamlin
- FireKeepers Casino 400 7 Jun 2026, won by Denny Hamlin
- Great American Getaway 400 presented by VISITPA 14 Jun 2026, won by Denny Hamlin
- Anduril 250 21 Jun 2026, won by Corey Heim
- Toyota / Save Mart 350 28 Jun 2026, won by Shane Van Gisbergen
- eero 400 5 Jul 2026, won by Chase Briscoe
- Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart 12 Jul 2026, won by Ryan Blaney
- Window World 450 19 Jul 2026, won by Joey Logano
- Brickyard 400 presented by PPG 26 Jul 2026, won by Corey Heim
- Iowa Corn 350 Powered by Ethanol 9 Aug 2026, won by Ty Gibbs
- Cook Out 400 15 Aug 2026, won by Joey Logano
- Dollar Tree 301 23 Aug 2026, won by Ryan Blaney
- Coke Zero Sugar 400 29 Aug 2026, won by Ryan Preece
- Cook Out Southern 500 6 Sep 2026, won by Christopher Bell
- Enjoy Illinois 300 13 Sep 2026, won by Kyle Larson
- Bass Pro Shops Night Race 19 Sep 2026, won by Joey Logano
- Hollywood Casino 400 27 Sep 2026
- South Point 400 4 Oct 2026
- Bank of America 400 11 Oct 2026
- Freeway Insurance 500 18 Oct 2026
- YellaWood 500 25 Oct 2026
- Xfinity 500 1 Nov 2026
- NASCAR Championship Race 8 Nov 2026