NASCAR Cup Series
NASCAR Cup Series ratings and forecasts. Denny Hamlin is 22% to win the Cup Series championship.
Chance of winning the Cup Series championship
| Driver | Points | Projected | Title chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 0 | 2370 | 22% |
| Kyle Larson | 0 | 2365 | 20% |
| Christopher Bell | 0 | 2360 | 18% |
| Tyler Reddick | 0 | 2355 | 14% |
| Ryan Blaney | 0 | 2324 | 6% |
| Chase Briscoe | 0 | 2319 | 5% |
| Chase Elliott | 0 | 2311 | 4% |
| Ty Gibbs | 0 | 2310 | 4% |
| William Byron | 0 | 2307 | 3% |
| Joey Logano | 0 | 2293 | 2% |
Calendar
- DAYTONA 500 15 Feb 2026, won by Tyler Reddick
- Autotrader 400 22 Feb 2026, won by Tyler Reddick
- DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix Powered by RelaDyne 1 Mar 2026, won by Tyler Reddick
- Straight Talk Wireless 500 8 Mar 2026, won by Ryan Blaney
- Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube 15 Mar 2026, won by Denny Hamlin
- Goodyear 400 22 Mar 2026, won by Tyler Reddick
- Cook Out 400 29 Mar 2026, won by Chase Elliott
- Food City 500 12 Apr 2026, won by Ty Gibbs
- AdventHealth 400 19 Apr 2026, won by Tyler Reddick
- Jack Link's 500 26 Apr 2026, won by Carson Hocevar
- Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY 3 May 2026, won by Chase Elliott
- Go Bowling at The Glen 10 May 2026, won by Shane Van Gisbergen
- Coca-Cola 600 24 May 2026, won by Daniel Suárez
- Cracker Barrel 400 31 May 2026, won by Denny Hamlin
- FireKeepers Casino 400 7 Jun 2026, won by Denny Hamlin
- Great American Getaway 400 presented by VISITPA 14 Jun 2026, won by Denny Hamlin
- Anduril 250 21 Jun 2026, won by Corey Heim
- Toyota / Save Mart 350 28 Jun 2026, won by Shane Van Gisbergen
- eero 400 5 Jul 2026, won by Chase Briscoe
- Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart 12 Jul 2026, won by Ryan Blaney
- Window World 450 19 Jul 2026, won by Joey Logano
- Brickyard 400 presented by PPG 26 Jul 2026, won by Corey Heim
- Iowa Corn 350 Powered by Ethanol 9 Aug 2026, won by Ty Gibbs
- Cook Out 400 15 Aug 2026, won by Joey Logano
- Dollar Tree 301 23 Aug 2026, won by Ryan Blaney
- Coke Zero Sugar 400 29 Aug 2026, won by Ryan Preece
- Cook Out Southern 500 6 Sep 2026, won by Christopher Bell
- Enjoy Illinois 300 13 Sep 2026, won by Kyle Larson
- Bass Pro Shops Night Race 19 Sep 2026, won by Joey Logano
- Hollywood Casino 400 27 Sep 2026, won by Kyle Larson
- South Point 400 4 Oct 2026, won by Chase Briscoe
- Bank of America 400 11 Oct 2026, won by Chase Briscoe
- Freeway Insurance 500 18 Oct 2026, won by Tyler Reddick
- YellaWood 500 25 Oct 2026, won by Kyle Larson
- Xfinity 500 1 Nov 2026, won by William Byron
- NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race 8 Nov 2026, won by Ryan Blaney
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2027 Cup Series championship?
Denny Hamlin, at 22%, ahead of Kyle Larson (20%) and Christopher Bell (18%), from 10,000 simulations of the remaining races with the real points system, updated 12 November 2026.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's NASCAR Cup Series predictions?
On 107 races from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, its favourite won 10% of the time in fields of about 38, and it gave the eventual winner 6% on average. Its log loss was 3.089, against 3.631 for treating every driver as equal and 3.287 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished events, its log loss was 3.012 against Kalshi's 2.522 over 44 races (lower is better).