14 Nov 2026 · Stadio Luigi Ferraris
Argentina at Italy
We have Italy at 36.5%, a draw at 3.3% and Argentina at 60.2%.
Ratings going in: Italy 1513, Argentina 1682, plus 85 for playing at home.
Weather forecast: 12°C, wind 13 km/h (gusts 27).
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Italy | Draw | Argentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 36.5% | 3.3% | 60.2% |
| Bookmakers (1 book) | 17.9% | 2.6% | 79.4% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Argentina LLLDL, Italy LLLLL.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Argentina at Italy?
PodiumOracle's model makes Argentina the favourite at 60%, a draw 3%, with Italy at 37%. The markets give Argentina 79% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 60% favourite still loses 40% of the time.
When and where is Argentina at Italy?
14 November 2026, at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.