Rugby union · 2026 season
Nations Championship forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the Nations Championship odds. Favourite right now: New Zealand, 43%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Away | Draw | Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2026 | South Africa at France | 60% | 3% | 37% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Argentina at Italy | 60% | 3% | 37% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | New Zealand at Wales | 94% | 1% | 5% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Japan at England | 3% | <1% | 97% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Fiji at Ireland | 5% | 1% | 94% |
| 15 Nov 2026 | Australia at Scotland | 25% | 3% | 73% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | Japan at Scotland | 4% | 1% | 96% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | New Zealand at England | 69% | 3% | 28% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | Fiji at Italy | 45% | 3% | 51% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | South Africa at Ireland | 57% | 3% | 39% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | Argentina at France | 10% | 1% | 89% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | Australia at Wales | 64% | 3% | 33% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | Australia at England | 22–45 | 75% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Fiji at France | 17–54 | 93% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Japan at Wales | 21–28 | 78% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | New Zealand at Scotland | 43–21 | 70% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | South Africa at Italy | 66–7 | 95% |
| 6 Nov 2026 | Argentina at Ireland | 12–42 | 89% |
Chance of winning the Nations Championship
| Team | Top of conference | Win the title |
|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 61% | 43% |
| South Africa | 39% | 29% |
| France | 58% | 17% |
| Ireland | 21% | 7% |
| England | 20% | 5% |
| Scotland | 1% | <1% |
| Australia | 0% | 0% |
| Wales | 0% | 0% |
| Argentina | 0% | 0% |
| Japan | 0% | 0% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2026 Nations Championship?
New Zealand, at 43%, ahead of South Africa (29%), France (17%) and Ireland (7%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
What are the odds for the next Nations Championship games?
According to PodiumOracle's model: South Africa at France (13 November 2026): South Africa 60%, a draw 3%; Argentina at Italy (14 November 2026): Argentina 60%, a draw 3%; New Zealand at Wales (14 November 2026): New Zealand 94%, a draw 1%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's Nations Championship predictions?
On 170 games from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 76% of the time. Its log loss was 0.547, against 0.743 for the base rate and 0.635 for recent form.
How are the Nations Championship predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Nations Championship odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.