Rugby union · 2026 season
Nations Championship forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the Nations Championship odds. Favourite right now: South Africa, 45%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2026 | South Africa at Australia | 11% | 1% | 88% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2026 | New Zealand at South Africa | 28–43 | 68% |
| 5 Sep 2026 | New Zealand at South Africa | 24–29 | 64% |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Australia at Argentina | 28–28 | 3% |
| 29 Aug 2026 | New Zealand at South Africa | 26–33 | 57% |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Australia at Argentina | 27–21 | 31% |
| 22 Aug 2026 | New Zealand at South Africa | 33–16 | 23% |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Japan at Australia | 17–56 | 88% |
| 8 Aug 2026 | Australia at Japan | 35–32 | 71% |
| 8 Aug 2026 | South Africa at Argentina | 17–10 | 88% |
| 18 Jul 2026 | Ireland at New Zealand | 21–40 | 65% |
| 18 Jul 2026 | France at Japan | 42–15 | 93% |
| 18 Jul 2026 | Italy at Australia | 10–57 | 74% |
Chance of winning the Nations Championship
| Team | Top of conference | Win the title |
|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 55% | 45% |
| New Zealand | 45% | 30% |
| France | 46% | 14% |
| Ireland | 16% | 5% |
| Scotland | 22% | 4% |
| England | 17% | 3% |
| Australia | 0% | 0% |
| Argentina | 0% | 0% |
| Wales | 0% | 0% |
| Japan | 0% | 0% |