14 Nov 2026 · Principality Stadium
New Zealand at Wales
We have Wales at 5.0%, a draw at 0.7% and New Zealand at 94.3%.
Ratings going in: Wales 1549, New Zealand 2132, plus 85 for playing at home.
Weather forecast: 9°C, wind 10 km/h (gusts 18).
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Wales | Draw | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 5.0% | 0.7% | 94.3% |
| Bookmakers (1 book) | 5.5% | 1.8% | 92.7% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: New Zealand LLWWW, Wales WWLLW.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win New Zealand at Wales?
PodiumOracle's model makes New Zealand the favourite at 94%, a draw 1%, with Wales at 5%. The markets give New Zealand 93% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 94% favourite still loses 6% of the time.
When and where is New Zealand at Wales?
14 November 2026, at Principality Stadium. The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.