South
New Zealand
Rated 2132 (No. 2 of 12), 4–0 this season, 43% to win the Nations Championship.
Season outlook
From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season from today's ratings.
- 61%
- Top of conference
- 43%
- Win the title
- 27.4
- Projected points
Rating
New Zealand is rated 2132, No. 2 of 12. The gap between two ratings is what the model turns into a win chance: about 100 points makes a 64% favourite on a neutral ground.
Next
| Date | Game | Away | Draw | Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2026 | New Zealand at Wales | 94% | 1% | 5% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | New Zealand at England | 69% | 3% | 28% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2026 | New Zealand at Scotland | 43–21 | 70% |
Questions and answers
What is New Zealand's chance of winning the 2026 Nations Championship?
43%, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. New Zealand is No. 2 of 12 in PodiumOracle's power ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
Who do New Zealand play next, and what are their chances?
New Zealand at Wales on 14 November 2026 at Principality Stadium. PodiumOracle's model gives New Zealand 94%, a draw 1%.