How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 11338 | 0.602 | 67% |
| Base rate | 11338 | 0.671 | 61% |
| Recent form | 11338 | 0.630 | 64% |
Only games ESPN carries are in the file: nearly every Division I game in recent seasons, fewer in the early ones.
The title odds use an approximate 64-team tournament of conference leaders and the best of the rest, seeded by simulated wins and rating. Regionals and super regionals are double-elimination and best-of-three in reality; here each round is one game.
Starting pitchers are not in the model yet.
The season runs from February to June; outside it the pages show how the last one finished.