Baseball · 2026 season over
NCAA baseball forecasts
The 2026 season is over. Until the 2027 schedule is out, here is an early look: last season's schedule played 10,000 times a year on, with every rating carried over the way the model carries it between seasons. Early favourite: Georgia Bulldogs, 9%. The full early look.
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jun 2026 | Milwaukee Panthers at Auburn Tigers | 3–8 | 92% |
| 2 Jun 2026 | USC Trojans at Texas A&M Aggies | 7–1 | 39% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 19–5 | 76% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | Arizona State Sun Devils vs Ole Miss Rebels | 4–5 | 54% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | Alabama Crimson Tide vs Oklahoma State Cowboys | 9–7 | 50% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | Cal Poly Mustangs vs Saint Mary's Gaels | 5–2 | 63% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | Texas A&M Aggies vs USC Trojans | 3–14 | 41% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | Oregon Ducks vs Oregon State Beavers | 4–1 | 54% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs Little Rock Trojans | 3–6 | 25% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | Auburn Tigers vs Milwaukee Panthers | 8–1 | 90% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | Florida State Seminoles vs St. John's Red Storm | 4–5 | 26% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Oklahoma Sooners | 7–8 | 27% |
Chance of winning the national championship
| Team | Make tournament | Super regional | Men's College World Series | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Bulldogs | 98% | 53% | 23% | 9% |
| Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 99% | 55% | 23% | 8% |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 98% | 52% | 23% | 8% |
| UCLA Bruins | 99% | 53% | 20% | 7% |
| Auburn Tigers | 90% | 42% | 16% | 5% |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | 92% | 43% | 16% | 5% |
| Kansas Jayhawks | 96% | 42% | 14% | 4% |
| Texas Longhorns | 91% | 40% | 14% | 4% |
| Oregon Ducks | 95% | 40% | 13% | 4% |
| USC Trojans | 99% | 43% | 14% | 4% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2027 national championship?
Georgia Bulldogs, at 9%, ahead of Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8%), North Carolina Tar Heels (8%) and UCLA Bruins (7%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the next season, on last season's schedule with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's NCAA baseball predictions?
On 11,338 games from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 67% of the time. Its log loss was 0.602, against 0.671 for the base rate and 0.630 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.639 against the bookmakers' 0.660 over 2,239 games and 0.627 against Kalshi's 0.642 over 2,433 games (lower is better).
How are the NCAA baseball predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.